Second-round previews from the Ningbo Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Petr Bar Biryukov vs Fajing Sun
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Naoya Honda vs Liam Broady
🧠 Form & Context
Naoya Honda
- 📊 Ranked No. 637 at 20, 5–5 in his last 10, after beating Peliwo in the first round.
- 🚀 Wins 69.1% behind his first serve, 74% recently.
- 🏆 Wins 50% of tiebreaks.
- 📏 Limited data on him at this level.
- ⚠️ Lands only 56.1% of first serves, and has won 38% of deciding sets.
Liam Broady
- 📊 Ranked No. 231 at 32, left-handed, after ending a poor run with a win over Fomin.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–1 6–1 in Yokkaichi in March.
- 🎾 Lands 62.8% of first serves and wins 52.3% behind his second.
- 🔁 Wins 40% of return points and converts 42.8% of break chances.
- 📊 59% career record in best-of-three.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of their meeting in Yokkaichi in March, which Broady won for the loss of two games. He is the favourite at 1.22.
Honda wins slightly more behind his first serve (69.1% vs 68.4%), but Broady lands far more first serves (62.8% vs 56.1%) and is stronger on the second.
Broady is also the better returner: 40% vs 39% of return points, and 42.8% vs 39.1% of break chances converted.
They are level on tiebreaks at 50%, but Broady has the much better deciding-set record (53% vs 38%).
Broady has the head-to-head and the more complete numbers. The price reflects that.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Honda | Broady |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 637 | 231 |
| Age | 20 | 32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 56.1% | 62.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| Break points saved | 59.0% | 59.7% |
| Break points converted | 39.1% | 42.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 38% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 49% | 59% |
Yi Zhou vs Jake Delaney
🧠 Form & Context
Yi Zhou
- 📊 Ranked No. 256 at 21, a semi-finalist in Guangzhou last week, after beating Ymer in the first round.
- 🚀 Wins 70.2% behind his first serve, 72% recently.
- 🔒 Has saved 68% of break points recently.
- 🔁 Wins 38% of return points.
- ⚠️ Only 35% of deciding sets won, with a 48% best-of-three record.
Jake Delaney
- 📈 Ranked No. 356 at 29, winning 72% of recent matches, after beating Binda in the first round.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 71.6% won, 76% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 63.1% of break points, 69% recently.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 37% of return points won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Zhou is a strong favourite at 1.20 after his run to the Guangzhou semi-finals last week.
On serve the numbers actually favour Delaney: more first serves in (63.5% vs 61%), 71.6% vs 70.2% won behind them, and slightly more break points saved.
Neither returns well (38% vs 37% of return points), so this should be a match of holds.
In tight moments Delaney has the edge: 49% vs 45% in tiebreaks, and 51% vs 35% in career deciding sets.
Zhou has the ranking and the recent run; on the numbers, Delaney makes this closer than 1.20 suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Zhou | Delaney |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 256 | 356 |
| Age | 21 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 61.0% | 63.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.2% | 71.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.3% | 50.5% |
| Break points saved | 62.0% | 63.1% |
| Break points converted | 40.2% | 40.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 45% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 35% | 51% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 48% | 56% |
Tristan Schoolkate vs Jie Cui
🧠 Form & Context
Tristan Schoolkate
- 🏆 Ranked No. 141 at 25, the Guangzhou champion last week, after beating Imamura in the first round.
- ⚔️ Beat Cui in a final-set tiebreak in the Guangzhou semi-finals on Saturday.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 74.4% won.
- 🔒 Saves 61.3% of break points.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 38% of return points won.
Jie Cui
- 📊 Ranked No. 393 at 28, a semi-finalist in Guangzhou, after beating Xiao in the first round.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 2–1, with both wins in Wuxi.
- 🎾 Lands 63.3% of first serves and wins 51.1% behind his second.
- 🎯 Converts 44% of break points.
- ⚠️ Has won only 21% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A quick rematch of last Saturday's Guangzhou semi-final, which Schoolkate won 6–7 6–4 7–6. Cui still leads their head-to-head 2–1. Schoolkate is the favourite at 1.50.
Schoolkate has the far bigger first serve – 74.4% of points won against 67.2% – and saves more break points.
Cui is the better returner: 40% vs 38% of return points, and 44% vs 38.5% of break chances converted.
Schoolkate has the better tight-set record: 51% vs 45% in tiebreaks, and 57% vs 47% in deciding sets.
Schoolkate has the serve, the clutch numbers and the momentum. Their last meeting shows how close it can be.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Schoolkate | Cui |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 141 | 393 |
| Age | 25 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 2 |
| First serves in | 60.2% | 63.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 74.4% | 67.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.2% | 51.1% |
| Break points saved | 61.3% | 57.1% |
| Break points converted | 38.5% | 44.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 45% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 56% |
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