First-round previews from the Ningbo Challenger (hard), with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every open match. Matches marked 🔒 are on today's PBTennis Patreon card. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Ognjen Milic vs Kaichi Uchida
🔒 Members-only read
This match is on today's PBTennis Patreon card. The full breakdown – form, serve and return numbers, the Tale of the Tape and our read on the match – is available to our members.
Mili Poljicak vs Yuta Shimizu
🧠 Form & Context
Mili Poljicak
- 📊 Ranked No. 270 at 22, 3–7 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 70% of first-serve points won, 72% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 59.5% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 56% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.5% of first serves, and wins just 48% of tiebreaks.
Yuta Shimizu
- 📊 Ranked No. 376 at 27, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 44.8% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Lands 61.9% of first serves and wins 50% on second.
- 🏆 Wins 56% of tiebreaks, with a 60% best-of-three record.
- ⚠️ Only 67.9% won behind his first serve.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and the market cannot split them: both are priced at 1.83. Poljicak is ranked more than 100 places higher.
Poljicak has the bigger first serve (70% vs 67.9% won), but Shimizu lands more first serves (61.9% vs 57.5%) and is level or better on the second.
Shimizu is the better returner – 42% vs 40% of return points – and converts more of his break chances.
In the tight moments Shimizu also has the edge: 56% of tiebreaks against 48%. Their career deciding-set records are identical at 55%.
A genuine coin-flip. Poljicak has the ranking and the first serve; Shimizu has the return, the tiebreak record and the left-handed angle.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Poljicak | Shimizu |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 270 | 376 |
| Age | 22 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.5% | 61.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.0% | 67.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.3% | 50.0% |
| Break points saved | 59.5% | 59.2% |
| Break points converted | 42.4% | 44.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 48% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 60% |
Rigele Te vs Mert Alkaya
🧠 Form & Context
Rigele Te
- 📊 Ranked No. 734 at 29, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 71.9% of first-serve points won.
- 🔒 Saves 58.8% of break points.
- 🔥 Lost a final-set tiebreak to Hewitt in Guangzhou last week.
- ⚠️ Lands only 56.4% of first serves and wins 38% of return points.
Mert Alkaya
- 📊 Ranked No. 311 at 26, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The much better returner: 42% of return points won and 44.9% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Lands 59.1% of first serves.
- 🏆 Wins 56% of tiebreaks, with a 58% best-of-three record.
- ⚠️ Only 66.3% won behind his first serve, and 56.1% of break points saved.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players who both lost in the first round in Guangzhou last week. Alkaya, ranked more than 400 places higher, is the favourite at 1.50.
Te has the clearly bigger first serve – 71.9% of points won against 66.3% – and saves more break points (58.8% vs 56.1%).
Alkaya is the much better returner: 42% of return points against 38%, and 35.7% against the first serve compared with Te's 30.7%.
The tight-set numbers are split: Alkaya wins more tiebreaks (56% vs 51%), while Te has the better career deciding-set record (56% vs 49%).
Serve against return. Alkaya has the ranking and the return; Te has the first serve. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Te | Alkaya |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 734 | 311 |
| Age | 29 | 26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 56.4% | 59.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.9% | 66.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| Break points saved | 58.8% | 56.1% |
| Break points converted | 41.6% | 44.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 58% |
Petr Bar Biryukov vs Semen Pankin
🧠 Form & Context
Petr Bar Biryukov
- 📊 Ranked No. 327 at 24, left-handed, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 74.5% won, 75% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 62.7% of break points.
- 🏆 Wins 62% of tiebreaks and 56% of deciding sets.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 35% of return points won.
Semen Pankin
- 📉 Ranked No. 430 at 27, 2–8 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The far better returner: 42% of return points won and 43.5% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Stronger behind the second serve: 51.9%.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of deciding sets this season, with a 64% best-of-three record.
- ⚠️ Wins only 40% of tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting, and the market can barely split them: Pankin is a slight favourite at 1.80, with the left-handed Bar Biryukov at 1.90.
Bar Biryukov has the clearly bigger serve – 74.5% of first-serve points won against 70.1% – and saves more break points.
Pankin is the much better returner: 42% of return points against 35%, and 34.8% against the first serve compared with 28.7%.
The tight-set numbers are split: Bar Biryukov wins far more tiebreaks (62% vs 40%), while Pankin has the better best-of-three record (64% vs 60%).
Serve against return in a genuine coin-flip. If the match is decided in tiebreaks, Bar Biryukov's numbers stand out.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Bar Biryukov | Pankin |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 327 | 430 |
| Age | 24 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 60.4% | 57.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 74.5% | 70.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.3% | 51.9% |
| Break points saved | 62.7% | 61.4% |
| Break points converted | 40.5% | 43.5% |
| Return points won (career) | 35% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 62% | 40% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 48% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 60% | 64% |
Yu Hsiou Hsu vs Keegan Smith
🧠 Form & Context
Yu Hsiou Hsu
- 📊 Ranked No. 287 at 27, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 41% of return points won and 42.5% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Wins 52.3% behind his second serve.
- 🏆 Wins 55% of tiebreaks, with a 62% best-of-three record.
- ⚠️ Lost in the first round in Guangzhou last week.
Keegan Smith
- 📈 Ranked No. 196 at 28, 6–4 in his last 10, fresh from a quarter-final run in Guangzhou.
- 🎾 Lands 70.1% of first serves and wins 71.6% behind them, 74% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 63.4% of break points, 68% recently.
- 🏆 Has won 60% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 37% of return points won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Smith arrives after reaching the quarter-finals in Guangzhou last week and is the favourite at 1.53.
Smith has the more complete serve: 70.1% of first serves in, 71.6% of first-serve points won and 63.4% of break points saved.
Hsu is clearly the better returner – 41% vs 37% of return points – and converts more of his break chances.
In tight moments they are close: identical 55% career deciding-set records, and 55% vs 53% in tiebreaks for Hsu.
Smith has the serve and the recent results; Hsu has the return. A match of holds should suit the favourite.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Hsu | K. Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 287 | 196 |
| Age | 27 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 64.4% | 70.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.6% | 71.6% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.3% | 51.8% |
| Break points saved | 59.2% | 63.4% |
| Break points converted | 42.5% | 40.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 37% |
| Tiebreak win % | 55% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 55% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 62% | 62% |
Charles Broom vs Akira Santillan
🧠 Form & Context
Charles Broom
- 📈 Ranked No. 264 at 28, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 63% of recent matches.
- 🔁 Wins 41% of return points.
- 🔒 Has saved 66% of break points recently.
- 🏆 63% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Lost their only meeting, 6–3 6–2 indoors in Maanshan in April.
Akira Santillan
- 📊 Ranked No. 309 at 29, with a one-handed backhand, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–3 6–2 at an ITF event in Maanshan in April.
- 🔥 Reached the quarter-finals in Guangzhou last week.
- 🚀 Wins 71.3% behind his first serve.
- ⚠️ Saves only 58.7% of break points.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of an indoor ITF meeting in April, which Santillan won comfortably. Broom is still the favourite at 1.61.
On serve they are very close: Santillan wins slightly more behind his first serve (71.3% vs 70.5%), while Broom is stronger on the second and saves more break points.
Neither returns well (41% vs 40% of return points), so this should be decided by a few key points.
The tight-set numbers are level: 52% vs 53% in tiebreaks, and 54% vs 50% in career deciding sets for Broom.
Broom has the better recent form; Santillan has the head-to-head and a good week behind him in Guangzhou.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Broom | Santillan |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 264 | 309 |
| Age | 28 | 29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 62.0% | 61.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.5% | 71.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.9% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 60.6% | 58.7% |
| Break points converted | 41.2% | 42.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 50% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 60% |
Tianhui Zhang vs Harold Mayot
🧠 Form & Context
Tianhui Zhang
- 📊 Ranked No. 788 at 20, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 62.8% of first serves and wins 68.5% behind them.
- 🏆 Has won 63% of deciding sets this season.
- 📏 Very little data on him at this level.
- ⚠️ Wins only 38% of tiebreaks and 38% of return points.
Harold Mayot
- 📊 Ranked No. 202 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 69.8% behind his first serve and 50.2% on second.
- 🔒 Saves 61.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season.
- 🔁 Wins 39% of return points and converts 41.6% of break chances.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Mayot is a heavy favourite at 1.07 against the 20-year-old Zhang.
Mayot is ahead on most serving lines, though the margins are small: 69.8% vs 68.5% on first-serve points and 61.2% vs 58.7% of break points saved.
He is also slightly the better returner (39% vs 38% of return points).
Neither has a strong tiebreak record (43% vs 38%), and both have won more than 60% of their deciding sets this season.
Mayot has the edge across the board. At 1.07, the price leaves nothing to play for either way.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | T. Zhang | Mayot |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 788 | 202 |
| Age | 20 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 62.8% | 61.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.5% | 69.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.6% | 50.2% |
| Break points saved | 58.7% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 39.9% | 41.6% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 39% |
| Tiebreak win % | 38% | 43% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 70% | 52% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 56% |
James McCabe vs Hiroki Moriya
🧠 Form & Context
James McCabe
- 📉 Ranked No. 247 at 23, 2–8 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 3–1, including 6–4 6–3 in Sydney last November.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 73% won.
- 🔒 Saves 60.9% of break points.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 37% of return points won.
Hiroki Moriya
- 📊 Ranked No. 480 at 36, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 40% of return points won and 42% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 65% of deciding sets this season.
- 🏆 Wins 52% of tiebreaks.
- ⚠️ Only 66.3% won behind his first serve.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A fifth meeting. McCabe has won three of their four, including in straight sets in Sydney last year, and is the favourite at 1.50.
McCabe has the much bigger first serve – 73% of points won against 66.3% – and saves more break points (60.9% vs 57.1%).
The veteran Moriya is the better returner: 40% of return points against 37%.
In tight moments they are level: 51% vs 52% in tiebreaks and 56% vs 55% in career deciding sets.
McCabe has the serve and the head-to-head, but he arrives on a 2–8 run. Closer than the head-to-head suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | McCabe | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 247 | 480 |
| Age | 23 | 36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Head-to-head | 3 | 1 |
| First serves in | 60.5% | 59.2% |
| 1st-serve points won | 73.0% | 66.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.3% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 60.9% | 57.1% |
| Break points converted | 39.8% | 42.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 52% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 56% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 53% |
Yaroslav Demin vs Carl Emil Overbeck
🧠 Form & Context
Yaroslav Demin
- 📊 Ranked No. 614 at 21, 5–5 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 63.6% of first serves.
- 🔒 Saves 58.1% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 61% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on the second serve: 46.8% won.
Carl Emil Overbeck
- 🔥 Ranked No. 291 at 25, 6–4 in his last 10 and winning 76% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 71.1% won.
- 🔁 The better returner: 41% of return points won and 44.1% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 71% of deciding sets over his career and 74% this season, with a 68% best-of-three record.
- 📏 A small sample of matches at this level.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Demin is the favourite at 1.72 despite being ranked more than 300 places lower.
The numbers point the other way. Overbeck wins 71.1% of first-serve points against 66%, and 49.4% on his second serve against 46.8%.
He is also the better returner – 41% vs 40% of return points – and converts more of his break chances.
In tight moments the gap is large: Overbeck has won 71% of his career deciding sets against Demin's 49%, and 56% of tiebreaks against 52%.
On paper Overbeck has the edge almost everywhere. The main caveat is how little data there is on both players at this level.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Demin | Overbeck |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 614 | 291 |
| Age | 21 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.6% | 64.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.0% | 71.1% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 46.8% | 49.4% |
| Break points saved | 58.1% | 56.9% |
| Break points converted | 43.4% | 44.1% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 49% | 71% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 51% | 68% |
Jake Delaney vs Alexandr Binda
🧠 Form & Context
Jake Delaney
- 📊 Ranked No. 357 at 29, 5–5 in his last 10 but winning 72% of recent matches.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 71.6% won, 76% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 63.1% of break points, 69% recently.
- 🏆 Has won 59% of deciding sets this season.
- ⚠️ Weak on return: 37% of return points won.
Alexandr Binda
- 📊 Ranked No. 465 at 25, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The much better returner: 43% of return points won and 45.7% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets over his career, with a 60% best-of-three record.
- 🎾 Lands 60.7% of first serves.
- ⚠️ Only 66.4% won behind his first serve, and 56.5% of break points saved.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Delaney is the favourite at 1.66.
Delaney has the clearly better serve: 71.6% of first-serve points against 66.4%, and 63.1% of break points saved against 56.5%.
Binda is the much better returner – 43% of return points against 37% – and converts far more of his break chances.
In tight moments Binda has the slightly better career numbers (58% vs 51% in deciding sets). Tiebreaks are level at 49% vs 48%.
A classic serve-against-return contest. Delaney's recent serving numbers make him a fair favourite, but not by much.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Delaney | Binda |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 357 | 465 |
| Age | 29 | 25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 63.5% | 60.7% |
| 1st-serve points won | 71.6% | 66.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.5% | 48.8% |
| Break points saved | 63.1% | 56.5% |
| Break points converted | 40.5% | 45.7% |
| Return points won (career) | 37% | 43% |
| Tiebreak win % | 49% | 48% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 51% | 58% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 56% | 60% |
Sergey Fomin vs Liam Broady
🧠 Form & Context
Sergey Fomin
- 📊 Ranked No. 294 at 25, 3–7 in his last 10.
- 🔁 Slightly the better returner: 41% of return points won and 44.3% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Has won 64% of deciding sets this season.
- 🔥 Took Schoolkate to a final set in Guangzhou last week.
- ⚠️ Saves only 55.3% of break points.
Liam Broady
- 📉 Ranked No. 233 at 32, left-handed, 1–9 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Lands 62.8% of first serves and wins 52.3% behind his second.
- 🔒 Saves 59.7% of break points.
- 🏆 59% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Has won only 33% of recent matches.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between two players in poor form. Broady arrives on a 1–9 run, but is still the favourite at 1.36.
Broady has the steadier serve: more first serves in (62.8% vs 58.9%), a stronger second serve (52.3% vs 48.9%) and more break points saved.
Fomin is slightly the better returner – 41% vs 40% of return points – and converts more of his break chances.
In tight moments they are close: 52% vs 50% in tiebreaks, 52% vs 53% in career deciding sets.
Broady has the serve and the experience, but his form makes 1.36 a short price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Fomin | Broady |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 294 | 233 |
| Age | 25 | 32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 58.9% | 62.8% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.1% | 68.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.9% | 52.3% |
| Break points saved | 55.3% | 59.7% |
| Break points converted | 44.3% | 42.8% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 50% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 52% | 53% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 59% |
Tristan Schoolkate vs Masamichi Imamura
🧠 Form & Context
Tristan Schoolkate
- 🏆 Ranked No. 169 at 25, fresh from winning the Guangzhou title on Sunday.
- 🚀 A big first serve: 74.3% won.
- 🔒 Saves 61.2% of break points.
- 🏆 Has won 57% of deciding sets over his career.
- ⚠️ Lost their only meeting, 7–5 in the third set in Playford in 2024.
Masamichi Imamura
- 📉 Ranked No. 427 at 27, 2–8 in his last 10.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 6–4 3–6 7–5 in Playford in 2024.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 45% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Lands 64.9% of first serves.
- ⚠️ Only 65.7% won behind his first serve.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of a tight three-setter in Playford two years ago, which Imamura won. Schoolkate arrives as the Guangzhou champion and is a heavy favourite at 1.12.
Schoolkate has the far bigger first serve – 74.3% of points won against 65.7% – and saves more break points.
Imamura is the better returner: 42% of return points against 38%.
In tight moments they are close: 50% vs 54% in tiebreaks, and 57% vs 49% in career deciding sets for Schoolkate.
Schoolkate has the serve, the ranking and the momentum. The only question is how much the title run has taken out of him.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Schoolkate | Imamura |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 169 | 427 |
| Age | 25 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 60.1% | 64.9% |
| 1st-serve points won | 74.3% | 65.7% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.1% | 49.8% |
| Break points saved | 61.2% | 56.0% |
| Break points converted | 38.4% | 45.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 38% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 57% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 57% | 57% |
Linang Xiao vs Jie Cui
🧠 Form & Context
Linang Xiao
- 📊 Currently unranked at 26, 3–7 in his last 10.
- 🎾 Wins 66.3% behind his first serve and 50.8% on second.
- 🏆 Wins 52% of tiebreaks.
- 📏 Limited data on him at this level.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.6% of first serves and saves 56.7% of break points.
Jie Cui
- 🔥 Ranked No. 448 at 28, a semi-finalist in Guangzhou last week.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 3–1, most recently 6–2 6–2 in Maanshan in March.
- 🎾 Lands 63.3% of first serves and wins 67.2% behind them.
- 🎯 Converts 44% of break points.
- ⚠️ Has won only 21% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A familiar match-up: Cui leads their head-to-head 3–1, and two more meetings ended in retirements. Fresh from the Guangzhou semi-finals, he is a heavy favourite at 1.12.
Cui has the slightly stronger serve: more first serves in (63.3% vs 57.6%) and marginally more points won behind both serves.
On return they are level at 40%, with Cui converting more of his break chances (44% vs 41.3%).
Xiao wins more tiebreaks (52% vs 45%), but Cui has the better deciding-set record over his career (47% vs 37%).
Cui has the form and the head-to-head. The price reflects that.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Xiao | Cui |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | – | 448 |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 3 |
| First serves in | 57.6% | 63.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.3% | 67.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| Break points saved | 56.7% | 57.1% |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 44.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 40% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 45% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 37% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 53% | 56% |
Naoya Honda vs Filip Peliwo
🧠 Form & Context
Naoya Honda
- 📊 Ranked No. 597 at 20, 4–6 in his last 10.
- 🚀 Wins 69.1% behind his first serve, 74% recently.
- 🎾 Wins 50% behind his second serve and saves 59% of break points.
- 📏 Limited data on him at this level.
- ⚠️ Only 38% of deciding sets won, with a 49% best-of-three record.
Filip Peliwo
- 📊 Ranked No. 641 at 32, a former junior Grand Slam champion, 6–4 in his last 10.
- 🔁 The better returner: 41% of return points won and 44.4% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Wins 56% of tiebreaks and 54% of deciding sets.
- 🎾 Lands 58.3% of first serves.
- ⚠️ Weak on the second serve: 47.9% won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting between the 20-year-old Honda and the experienced Peliwo. Honda is the favourite at 1.66.
Honda has the edge on serve: 69.1% of first-serve points against 67.3%, a stronger second serve and more break points saved.
Peliwo is the better returner – 41% vs 39% of return points – and converts far more of his break chances (44.4% vs 39.1%).
In tight moments Peliwo has the clear edge: 56% of tiebreaks against 50%, and 54% of deciding sets against 38%.
Honda has the serve; Peliwo has the return, the experience and the clutch numbers. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Honda | Peliwo |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 597 | 641 |
| Age | 20 | 32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 56.1% | 58.3% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.1% | 67.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| Break points saved | 59.0% | 56.8% |
| Break points converted | 39.1% | 44.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 50% | 56% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 38% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 49% | 56% |
Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou
🧠 Form & Context
Elias Ymer
- 📊 Ranked No. 228 at 30, 3–7 in his last 10.
- 🔁 Wins 39% of return points and converts 40.8% of break chances.
- 🏆 Has won 53% of deciding sets over his career and 57% this season.
- 🏆 Wins 47% of tiebreaks.
- 📉 Lost in the first round in Guangzhou last week.
Yi Zhou
- 🔥 Ranked No. 280 at 21, a semi-finalist in Guangzhou last week.
- 🚀 Wins 70.2% behind his first serve, 72% recently.
- 🔒 Saves 62% of break points, 68% recently.
- 🎾 Lands 61% of first serves and wins 50.3% behind his second.
- ⚠️ Has won only 35% of deciding sets, with a 48% best-of-three record.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A first meeting. Zhou arrives after reaching the semi-finals in Guangzhou last week and is the favourite at 1.28.
Zhou has the better serve: 70.2% of first-serve points against 69.5%, a stronger second serve and 62% of break points saved against 58.9%.
On return there is little between them (39% vs 38% of return points).
The tight-set numbers favour Ymer: 47% vs 45% in tiebreaks, and 53% vs 35% in deciding sets over their careers.
Zhou has the serve and the momentum; Ymer has the experience and the better third-set record.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Ymer | Zhou |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 228 | 280 |
| Age | 30 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.5% | 61.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 69.5% | 70.2% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 48.8% | 50.3% |
| Break points saved | 58.9% | 62.0% |
| Break points converted | 40.8% | 40.2% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 47% | 45% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 53% | 35% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 48% |
No comments:
Post a Comment