PBTennis · Tennis Form Snapshot · Day 160
Tuesday Form Radar: 17 matches where the market backs the weaker form
Main draws are running in every listed event. Today's board has 17 wrong-side alerts and two crisis-tier favourites. In the biggest gap, the underdog is priced at 6.00 despite rating 29 points higher.
113 open matches | 12 tournaments | 17 wrong-side alerts | 2 crisis-tier favourites |
Yesterday's board, checked
Every signal is checked against the next day's draw, including the bad days. Monday was one of them.
Chiesa won at 2.25 as a wrong-side underdog in Courmayeur qualifying and is in today's main draw. Maduzzi also came through at 2.50 with the form edge.
The rough part: form-backed favourites went 3 of 7 and wrong-side alerts 1 of 5. Over 30 boards the rates are still 74% and 36%; one day doesn't move them much.
| D159 signal | Held |
|---|---|
| Wrong-side alerts | 1 / 5 |
| Form-backed favourites | 3 / 7 |
| Sub-threshold underdogs | 1 / 3 |
| Late D158 form-backed favourites | 2 / 2 |
Tour main draws: one form read open
The prices are public. Our 52-week form read on each match is on the members' board.
| Match | Odds | Form read |
|---|---|---|
| Tokyo · Cirstea vs Joint | 1.33 / 3.40 | Form agrees with the market |
| Vienna · Alcaraz vs Khachanov | 1.20 / 4.50 | 🔒 members |
| Vienna · Paul vs Rublev | 1.67 / 2.20 | 🔒 members |
| Vienna · Mannarino vs Buse | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Fritz vs Tsitsipas | 1.57 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Fils vs Hurkacz | 1.57 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Basel · Kym vs Rinderknech | 1.80 / 2.00 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Osaka vs Paolini | 1.40 / 3.00 | 🔒 members |
| Tokyo · Alexandrova vs Ann Li | 1.80 / 2.00 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Badosa vs Xiyu Wang | 1.80 / 2.00 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Tjen vs Kudermetova | 1.57 / 2.38 | 🔒 members |
| Guangzhou · Kenin vs Quevedo | 1.73 / 2.10 | 🔒 members |
Among the 11 locked matches: 3 wrong-side alerts, 1 crisis-tier favourite and 1 near-even match with a major form gap.
Today's 17 wrong-side alerts
In each of these, the market's favourite is the player in worse form.
| Event | Match | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Sioux Falls Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 29 |
| Guayaquil Challenger | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 29 |
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 27 |
| Guangzhou WTA | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 27 |
| Curitiba WTA 125 | 🔒 █████ vs █████ | 22 |
| + 12 more alerts on the members' board | ||
Three names the market keeps backing. One is last week's Challenger finalist, now 1.13 against an opponent rated 29 points higher. The other two are tour players favoured for the second match in a row despite the lower form rating.
30 boards in
| Signal (D130–D159) | Resolved | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level form at short prices (favourite wins) | 178 | 75% |
| Form-backed favourites (favourite wins) | 473 | 74% |
| Sub-threshold underdogs (underdog advances) | 215 | 40% |
| Wrong-side alerts (underdog advances) | 281 | 36% |
Outcomes come from draw progression. These are small samples and not a betting performance record.
Unlock the full Day 160 board
All 113 matches with form tiers, all 17 wrong-side alerts named, the two crisis-tier favourites, form arcs, and the full Excel and DOCX snapshot.
Open on Patreon →Match-by-match analysis, model review and filtered selections are in the Elite membership.
#Tennis #TennisBetting #ATP #WTA #ATPChallenger #WTA125 #TennisForm #ViennaOpen #SwissIndoors #Vienna #Basel #Tokyo #Guangzhou #Alcaraz #Zverev #Fritz #Osaka #PBTennis
18+ only. Form ratings are an information tool, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
No comments:
Post a Comment