Dan Added vs Kyrian Jacquet

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ATP Metz — Dan Added vs Kyrian Jacquet

ATP Metz Indoor Hard Round of 16 France

🧠 Form & Context

Dan Added (FRA, #204)

• 2025: 68–31 overall | Indoors 24–12, Hard 32–12.
• Heavy match volume with three lower-level titles; tons of reps on French indoor courts.
• H2H edge: d. Jacquet 6–2, 6–4 at St. Tropez (Sep 2025).

Kyrian Jacquet (FRA, #156)

• 2025: 34–22 overall | Indoors 5–3, Hard 20–8.
• Recent surge: Asian swing title (Shenzhen 2 CH); qualified in Metz, then R1 comeback vs Van Assche (4–6, 6–3, 6–4).
• First main-draw run in Metz; enters as the market favorite.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Rhythm & reps: Added’s 99-match season and 24–12 indoor file scream comfort in low-bounce French halls. Jacquet’s indoor sample is lighter, but the recent level is higher (fresh title + quality R1 reference).

Serve/first-strike patterns: Added (183 cm) looks to play serve +1 and keep rallies short; Jacquet (175 cm) takes early on the rise and redirects pace. Expect compact exchanges and scoreboard pressure on second serves.

H2H & psychology: Added’s straight-sets win in September matters—same country, similar conditions—but Jacquet arrives with fresher confidence and the higher ceiling this autumn.

Margins: With both right-handers seeking to dictate, the hinge points are first-serve percentage and second-serve protection in 4–4/5–5 games. Tiebreaks or late-set breaks are live outcomes.

🔮 Prediction

Slight clash of narratives: Added owns the H2H and heavier indoor mileage; Jacquet carries the ranking, the recent title, and a sturdy R1 comeback. In a serve-led, tight affair, Jacquet’s current form and shot-making tolerance at this level give him a narrow edge—but it’s upset-prone if Added starts hot on serve.

Pick: Jacquet in three sets.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Added steady with volume; Jacquet trending up post-title.
• Surface fit: Both comfortable indoors; Added has more French-hall reps.
• First-strike vs redirect: Added leans serve +1; Jacquet excels taking early and changing direction.
• H2H: Added 1–0 (St. Tropez, Sep 2025).
• Pressure points: Edge to the player with higher first-serve clip and cleaner second-serve holds at 4–4/5–5.