Friday, October 10, 2025

ATP Shanghai — Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur

Surface: Hard (outdoor) • Location: Shanghai, China

2025: 33–20 | Hard: 19–11
Shanghai: d. Svrcina 6–1, 6–1; d. Davidovich Fokina 6–3, 7–6; d. Tien 7–6, 6–7, 6–4 ✅
Gutted out a mental/physical battle vs Tien (cramps, squandered leads) — welcome momentum after two earlier losses to him in 2025.
Season below his historical peak (only two top-10 wins), but attitude/level have ticked up on the China swing.
Two prior Shanghai QFs; 2019 champion here.

2025: 51–18 | Hard: 29–9
Shanghai: d. Ugo Carabelli 6–4, 6–2; d. Majchrzak 6–1, 7–5; d. Borges 7–5, 6–2 ✅
Hit the 50-win mark for the season; first Aussie to do it since Hewitt (2004).
Back-to-back Asia QFs (Beijing, Shanghai); five QFs in his last six hard-court events (ATP 500+).
Masters résumé still growing (QF record 2–4), but week-to-week level and Race position are strong.

Serve/Return dynamic: Medvedev’s deep-court return and backhand wall aim to blunt De Minaur’s first-strike forehand. ADM needs above-par first-serve % to avoid long, neutral exchanges.
Patterns: Medvedev thrives on absorb-and-redirect, switching BH DTL to flip rallies. De Minaur’s best lane is taking the FH on the rise early, then sneaking forward behind the inside-in.
Physical layer: Medvedev’s three-setter vs Tien adds load management context; ADM’s legs/defense raise his floor in extended points.
Scoreboard pressure: Early mini-breaks in tiebreaks and 30-all points on ADM’s serve loom large; Daniil historically elite at protecting leads when belief is high.

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