ATP Roanne Challenger — Matteo Martineau vs Mika Brunold
Stage: Quarterfinal • Surface: Indoor Hard • Location: Roanne, France
🧠 Form & Context
Matteo Martineau (FRA, #297)
- Indoors 2025: 15–10; qualified here and beat Galarneau (1R), then edged Karol in two TBs after dropping the opener in R16.
- Venue comfort: Roanne finalist in 2024; thrives on French indoor swing.
- Profile: Streaky season but battle-tested in breakers; tends to hang tough at home.
Mika Brunold (SUI, #328)
- Indoors 2025: 14–5; qualified cleanly, then straight-sets over Engel and Sakellaridis.
- Season: 35–22 overall; disciplined baseline with first-strike forehand doing damage.
- Notes: Roanne debut, but form line this week is sharp — barely touched through three matches.
🔢 Snapshot
| Category | Edge | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Serve +1 patterns | Brunold (slight) | Cleaner first-strike forehand indoors this week. |
| Tiebreak reps | Martineau | Loads of breakers in 2025; home-court composure. |
| Venue familiarity | Martineau | Finalist here last year; knows sightlines and bounce. |
| Current week form | Brunold | Qualies + straights; low games conceded. |
🧭 Match Notes
- Patterns: Martineau looks for BH line changes to open the court; Brunold thrives on early FH acceleration after a strong first serve.
- Scoreboard pressure: Expect TBs/short margins; Martineau’s clutch history vs Brunold’s cleaner week sets the tension.
- Keys: First-serve % and second-serve protection; whoever blinks first in 30-all games likely tilts the set.
🔍 Full Match Breakdown
Model edges, serve-target maps, and live-bet triggers are inside our Patreon write-up.
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