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WTA Ningbo — Clara Tauson vs Ajla Tomljanovic
🧠 Form & Context
🇩🇰 Clara Tauson (#12, right-handed; 182 cm)
- 📊 2025: 36–21 overall | 23–12 on hard | 3–1 indoors 📈
- 🏁 Big-season highs: Dubai finalist; Linz & Montreal SFs; four Top-10 scalps (incl. Świątek, Keys).
- 🌏 Asia swing under par: three wins across Seoul/Beijing/Wuhan; retired in Wuhan R16 (thigh) after beating Ruzic.
- 🔁 H2H level with Tomljanovic (2–2); most recent win in Cincinnati (3 sets).
🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanovic (#104, right-handed; 180 cm)
- 📊 2025: 23–23 overall | 10–11 on hard | 0–2 indoors.
- 📉 No MD beyond R2 since Rabat SF (late May); slipped outside Top 100 after points drop.
- ✅ Arrives from qualifying with first back-to-back wins since June (d. Joint 4–6, 6–2, 6–4; d. Ruzic 6–2, 6–0).
- 🩹 Recent retirements noted earlier in the season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
First-strike vs. rally length: Tauson’s heavy baseline aggression and backhand drive usually set the tone. If she controls first-ball patterns and keeps service games short, she dictates.
Ajla’s path: Counterpunching, redirecting pace, and pushing exchanges a ball longer — especially to test Tauson’s recent thigh issue — are key. Deep, heavy backhands into the ad corner can draw shorter replies.
Serve dynamics: Tauson’s edge on first-serve pop should generate more cheap points; Tomljanovic must protect second serve and vary spots to avoid forehand heat.
H2H texture: Last two meetings went three sets (Tomljanovic won Hong Kong 125 final ’24; Tauson replied in Cincinnati ’25). Expect tight scorelines again.
🔮 Prediction
Lean: Clara Tauson in three sets. Peak level and serve/return ceiling lean the Dane, but Ajla’s qualifying rhythm and rally tolerance make this sticky — particularly if points stretch or if Tauson’s movement isn’t 100%.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Clara Tauson | Ajla Tomljanovic |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 (overall) | 36–21 | 23–23 |
| 2025 (hard) | 23–12 | 10–11 |
| 2025 (indoors) | 3–1 | 0–2 |
| Asia swing notes | Under par; Wuhan R16 retire (thigh) | Quali wins (Joint, Ruzic) into MD |
| H2H | 2–2 (Tomljanovic Hong Kong ’24; Tauson Cincinnati ’25) | |
| Style edge | First-strike weight, BH drive, serve pop | Counterpunch, redirection, rally extension |
| My read | Edges 2–1 on serve/return ceiling | Live if rallies lengthen & Tauson’s movement dips |
Pick: Tauson 2–1 (expect tight early holds and momentum swings).
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