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ATP Brussels — Daniel Altmaier vs Gilles-Arnaud Bailly
🧠 Form & Context
🇩🇪 Daniel Altmaier (GER, #51, 191 cm, right)
- 2025: 30–31 overall | Hard 11–16 | Indoors 5–4 | Clay 13–8 | Grass 1–3
- ✅ Highlights: RG R16 (d. Fritz, Medjedovic), USO 3R (d. Tsitsipas in 5), Rotterdam QF; Tokyo 1R d. Shapovalov.
- 🧱 Proven at ATP level; heavier schedule vs top fields this season.
- 🤝 H2H: 1–0 (Antwerp 2024, 6–4 6–3).
🇧🇪 Gilles-Arnaud Bailly (BEL, #247, right)
- 2025: 64–22 overall | Hard 20–8 | Indoors 2–0 | Clay 42–14
- ✅ Qualified here: d. Trungelliti, d. Royer (two TBs).
- 📈 Big winning year across ITF/Challenger with multiple finals/titles; first ATP Brussels MD.
- 🏠 Home support in Brussels; confidence high from qualies.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Level & reps: Altmaier’s 2025 is packed with ATP main-draw reps (Slam wins, 500/QF runs). Bailly’s volume is excellent but largely ITF/CH; this is a step up in class.
Surface/pace: Indoor hard rewards first strike and serve protection. Altmaier’s Rotterdam QF and Tokyo win over Shapovalov show the toolkit plays; Bailly’s TB poise in qualies is a plus, but he’ll face heavier return pressure here.
Patterns: Altmaier can lean on the forehand pattern and backhand stability in neutral rallies. Bailly’s path: attack second serves, keep the crowd engaged, and drag sets to breakers—where he’s been sharp this week.
Intangibles: Home crowd narrows the gap early; if Altmaier starts slow, live momentum could flip. Experience edge should steady the German in tight moments.
🔮 Prediction
Altmaier’s ATP-grade baseline weight and big-match experience give him the edge, but Bailly’s form and venue boost make this sticky. Expect at least one tight set.
Pick: Altmaier in two close sets (one tiebreak likely). Upset chances rise if Altmaier’s first-serve % dips and rallies lengthen.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Daniel Altmaier | Gilles-Arnaud Bailly |
|---|---|---|
| Rank / Hand | #51, Right | #247, Right |
| 2025 W–L | 30–31 | 64–22 |
| Hard (’25) | 11–16 | 20–8 |
| Indoors (’25) | 5–4 | 2–0 |
| Clay (’25) | 13–8 | 42–14 |
| Grass (’25) | 1–3 | — |
| Notable 2025 Runs | RG R16; USO 3R; Rotterdam QF | Multiple ITF/CH finals & titles; qualified here |
| H2H | Altmaier leads 1–0 (Antwerp 2024: 6–4, 6–3) | |
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