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Thompson vs Tabilo — ATP Chengdu Preview
ATP Chengdu
Hard Court
Round of 32
🧠 Form & Context
Jordan Thompson (31, #78)
- 🔥 Grass peak this summer: Wimbledon R16 run (comebacks over Bonzi/Kopriva, d. Darderi).
- ⚙️ 2025 hard: 6–6; mixed late-summer form (L vs Mannarino twice, DC loss vs Bergs).
- 🧰 Style: serve+forehand patterns, BH slice to change pace; best when first-serve% is high.
- 🩹 Note: Patchy results after Wimbledon; needs a clean start here to avoid long rallies.
Alejandro Tabilo (28, #112)
- 🚀 Recent reps: qualified in Chengdu (d. Te, d. Harris) just before MD; Guangzhou CH finalist last week.
- ⚖️ 2025 hard: 10–10; headline upsets earlier in the season (IW d. Lajovic; Monte-Carlo d. Djokovic) show upside.
- 🧭 Lefty patterns: slider serve wide ad, heavy XC forehand to rush errors; takes time away well.
- 🔁 Volume week: many matches in 7–10 days — sharpness up, small fatigue risk.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Serve dynamics: Thompson needs hold rhythm to blunt Tabilo’s lefty ROS into his BH.
Rally patterns: Tabilo’s XC FH into Thompson’s BH opens space; Thompson counters with slice and line changes.
Recent sharpness: Tabilo’s qualifying + CH run = rhythm; Thompson’s recent results hint at slower starts.
Key lever: Control of ad-court exchanges. If Thompson lands >65% first serves, points shorten; if not, Tabilo’s patterns bite.
🔮 Prediction
Lean: Tabilo in three — in-form lefty with live return patterns and current match rhythm. Expect at least one tight set (TB possible).
📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)
| Factor | Edge | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| First-serve hold pressure | Thompson ↗ | When the % is high, he front-runs and shortens points. |
| Lefty ROS patterns | Tabilo ↗ | Wide-ad serves & XC FHs stress Thompson’s BH wing. |
| Recent match rhythm | Tabilo ↗ | Qualies + CH final = timing and confidence. |
| Slice/pace variation | Thompson ↗ | Disrupts Tabilo’s cadence if he keeps depth. |
| Fitness/volume risk | Even | Tabilo’s heavy schedule vs Thompson’s slower starts. |
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