Vukic A. vs Goffin D.

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Vukic vs Goffin — Hangzhou R32 Preview

ATP Hangzhou Hard Court Round of 32

🧠 Form & Context

Aleksandar Vukic (29, #93)

• 🎯 2025 hard: 9–15 — streaky year but upside flashed in Toronto (d. Norrie; pushed Tiafoe to a decider).
• 🧱 Serve-plus-1 patterns are his edge; when 1st-serve% and FH length click, he controls the 0–4 exchanges.
• ⚠️ Recent wobble: DC loss to Collignon; five-setter loss to Brooksby at USO.

David Goffin (34, #87)

• 📉 2025 hard: 7–14 — dip since spring; early exits across the North American swing.
• 💡 Still has spikes (d. Alcaraz in Miami 2R before falling to Nakashima).
• 🪶 Lives on depth and tempo shifts; second-serve protection remains a pain point vs big first-ball hitters.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve/return: Vukic’s first serve should generate cheap holds; Goffin must lift 2nd-serve points won to avoid scoreboard squeeze.

Rally patterns: 0–4 shots lean Vukic (FH +1 through the deuce lane). Longer exchanges and re-direction favor Goffin if he pins the Vukic backhand.

H2H (2025): 1–1 — Vukic blasted through in Brisbane; Goffin flipped it in Miami with steadier neutral depth.

Keys: Vukic ≥65% first-serve, positive FH winners/UE delta. Goffin needs early BH depth, body serves, and to target Vukic’s BH return.

🔮 Prediction

Surface and patterns tilt toward the bigger first-strike frame. Goffin’s ceiling keeps it live, but unless he flips the second-serve battle, Vukic should edge the tight moments.

Pick: Vukic in 3 sets (tiebreak possible).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• First-strike weight: Edge Vukic (serve + FH +1).
• Neutral rally craft: Edge Goffin (depth/re-direction).
• Recent form on hard: Slight Vukic (higher upside spots despite wobble).
• Tiebreak/close-set savvy: Even to slight Vukic if serve holds up.
• Fatigue/legs: Edge Vukic over best-of-3.