Sunday, September 28, 2025

Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Tokyo (Japan Open) — Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Brandon Nakashima

Event: Japan Open • Round: QF • Surface: Hard

🧠 Form & Context

Carlos Alcaraz (🇪🇸 #1)

🤕 Ankle scare in R1; managed minutes and beat Bergs in straights — level still below peak.
🔥 Streaking: 15-match tour-level win streak; QF record this season 10–2 (12 QF wins from 14 events).
🏆 2025 snapshot: 64–7 overall, 25–4 on hard; first Tokyo campaign.
📊 H2H 2–0 vs Nakashima (Next Gen ’21, Oeiras ’21).

Brandon Nakashima (🇺🇸 #33)

✅ Form uptick: Chengdu SF last week; in Tokyo d. Thompson (in 3) & Fucsovics (in 2).
🎯 Strengths: clean serve patterns, backhand solidity, low-error tempo — punishes short second serves.
📈 2025 snapshot: 31–24 overall, 19–12 on hard; 8th QF of the year (QF record 3–4).
🐺 Giant-killing window exists if Alcaraz’s serve/movement dip.

🔢 Head-to-Head

Alcaraz leads 2–0 (Next Gen Finals 2021; Oeiras 2021).

🔍 Full Breakdown & Value Bets

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