Reilly Opelka vs Murphy Cassone

🎾 ATP Washington – First Round Preview

Reilly Opelka vs Murphy Cassone
22 July 2025, Washington D.C. (Outdoor Hard)

🧠 Form & Context

Reilly Opelka

• 🎢 Inconsistent return: Struggling for rhythm after injury layoffs, Opelka has managed headline wins (vs. Djokovic, Medvedev) but also poor losses (to Buse, Gaston).
• 🏠 American soil comfort: All four ATP titles have come in the U.S.—a familiar setting where he usually brings his best.
• 📉 Recent fitness issues: Retired twice this season, most recently in May due to wrist concerns. Form on hard courts remains volatile.
• 📍 DC track record: No deeper than R3 in six previous trips; exited R2 last year.

Murphy Cassone

• 🚀 Career breakthrough: Qualifies for his first ATP main draw after beating Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and Rinky Hijikata—two solid names on home soil.
• 🔥 Challenger form: 12–7 on U.S. hard courts in 2025; continues to grow confidence and court awareness.
• 🎯 Upset history: Already owns wins over ATP main-draw regulars like Eubanks and Evans in Challengers this season.
• 🧠 Free-swinging underdog: Has nothing to lose here, which can make him dangerous against a rhythm-sensitive big server like Opelka.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Expect a serve-dominated affair, especially early. Opelka’s 211cm frame and massive delivery mean break chances will be scarce for Cassone, especially if the American veteran lands >70% first serves. The pressure shifts to Cassone’s own serve, which will need to hold up under the weight of few margin-for-error moments.

Cassone’s hope lies in Opelka’s occasional second-set dips and physical concerns. He may look to extend rallies, mix in slice, and frustrate Opelka into long baseline exchanges where the veteran is less comfortable. Still, winning return points consistently remains a massive ask.

With Opelka’s injury history and lack of rhythm, the longer this match goes, the more it opens up for Cassone. But if Opelka is dialed in on serve, it may come down to a tiebreak or two—where the veteran holds the edge.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Opelka in 2 close sets or 3.
Cassone’s a fighter and may stretch one of the sets into a breaker, but Opelka’s first-serve dominance and big-match familiarity should get him over the line. That said, live bettors may want to watch for early movement cues—any sign of rust from Opelka could flip this quickly.