Mackenzie McDonald vs Colton Smith

🎾 ATP Washington – First Round Preview

Mackenzie McDonald vs Colton Smith
22 July 2025, Washington (Hard Court)

🧠 Form & Context

Mackenzie McDonald

• 🇺🇸 Veteran in need of a spark: Currently ranked No. 95, looking to protect his spot inside the Top 100 after a steady grass swing that featured a main-draw win at Queen’s and a tight loss to Khachanov in 's-Hertogenbosch.
• 💡 Washington success story: Reached his only ATP final here in 2021, defeating Kyrgios and Nishikori before falling to Sinner. Since then, though, he’s lost his opener in both 2022 and 2024.
• 📉 Hard-court track: 10–6 on hard in 2025, though much of that success came at Challenger level.

Colton Smith

• 🇺🇸 Emerging talent: At 22, Smith already owns two ATP main-draw wins this year, beating Cobolli (Indian Wells) and Duckworth (Houston).
• 📈 Grass swing momentum: Made a semifinal run in Nottingham, going 9–5 on grass. But recent results have slowed—lost to Nanda in Los Cabos and needed three sets to beat Fenty and Zink in D.C. qualifying.
• ⚠️ DC debut: This is Smith’s first appearance in Washington and just his second ATP hard-court main-draw match outside of Houston.

🔍 Match Breakdown

McDonald’s game—built around tempo, precision, and clean transitions—matches well with the medium-quick courts in Washington. His compact strokes and ability to absorb pace will test Smith’s ability to finish points efficiently.

Smith’s game is still raw but dangerous. His serve and inside-out forehand can create openings, but his baseline consistency and decision-making under pressure remain works in progress. Against a veteran like McDonald who thrives in tight rallies and manages big moments, that’s a key gap.

Another concern is physical wear: Smith went three sets in both qualifying matches and has been playing regularly since grass season. That could surface late if McDonald stretches this into long rallies and exploits his court coverage advantage.

🔮 Prediction

Mackenzie McDonald in 2 tight sets.
His Washington experience and reliable game style make him a slight favorite. Smith’s power keeps him competitive—especially early—but over time, McDonald’s rhythm and timing should create separation. Safer angles: Over 21.5 total games or Smith +3.5 games spread. Smith is unlikely to be blown away, but McDonald’s control should ultimately wear him down.