🇮🇹 Mattia Bellucci vs 🇫🇷 Hugo Gaston

🇮🇹 Mattia Bellucci vs 🇫🇷 Hugo Gaston – ATP Toronto R1 Preview

🎾 Monday, July 28 · ATP 1000 Toronto · Outdoor Hard

🧠 Form & Context

Mattia Bellucci 🇮🇹

• 🎾 Season of swings: Reached SF in Rotterdam with huge wins over Tsitsipas and Medvedev, then suffered a nine-match losing streak
• 🌱 Turned it around on grass: QF in Eastbourne and 3R at Wimbledon
• 🔝 Career-high No. 63 in June; currently No. 72
• 🤝 No points to defend in Toronto, presenting a valuable opportunity
• 📊 2025 record: 16–22 overall (2–7 on hard)

Hugo Gaston 🇫🇷

• ⚠️ In decline: After being runner-up in Kitzbühel last year, recent early losses have pushed him out of the Top 100 (currently No. 126)
• 💔 Hard-court issues: 0–6 on outdoor hard since mid-2024; 8–7 overall in 2025 but mostly indoors or on lower-tier events
• 🔄 Style clash: Famous for his touch and drop shots, but struggles when forced into deep, physical exchanges
• 📊 2025 record: 14–22 overall (8–7 on hard)

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a stylistic duel: Bellucci brings power, pace, and spin from the baseline, while Gaston looks to disrupt with slices, drop shots, and changes of rhythm. The Italian’s lefty forehand and serve should control most exchanges, particularly if he keeps Gaston behind the baseline.

Momentum is also on Bellucci’s side. His grass-court rebound included competitive matches and visible confidence, while Gaston is struggling to find rhythm. The Frenchman’s game may frustrate for a few games, but longer rallies and aggressive tempo should tilt the balance toward Bellucci.

🔮 Prediction

Expect Bellucci to dominate serve games and push Gaston into uncomfortable territory. If the Italian maintains focus and handles Gaston’s variety, this should be a straight-sets win.

🧩 Pick: Mattia Bellucci in 2 sets (e.g. 6–4, 7–5)