Carabelli vs Misolic

🇸🇪 ATP Bastad – Quarterfinal

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Filip Misolic

🧠 Form & Context

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Carabelli has been a reliable presence on the clay this season, putting together a 25–13 record. He’s logged ATP-level wins over Garin, Baez, and most recently Van de Zandschulp in Bastad, showing renewed energy after a disappointing grass swing and an early Roland Garros exit.

While his baseline game can be streaky, when he’s in rhythm, he’s a relentless grinder—pushing opponents deep and breaking them down with physicality. However, despite strong Challenger form, he’s yet to reach an ATP quarterfinal in 2025—until now.

Filip Misolic
Misolic is on a tear. The Austrian has compiled a 35–9 clay record this year, with two Challenger titles and some statement performances—most notably a dominant win over Carabelli just a few weeks ago in Bucharest (6–3, 6–1).

He’s come through qualifying in Bastad and survived two tight three-set battles in the main draw, showing exceptional mental strength and endurance. A win here would likely push him into the ATP top 100 for the first time—a huge motivation boost.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a rematch of their Bucharest encounter, and stylistically, it still leans toward Misolic. He’s now 2–0 in the head-to-head, thanks largely to his compact mechanics, tactical discipline, and ability to take the ball early—disrupting Carabelli’s rhythm.

Carabelli thrives in long, shape-heavy rallies, using his forehand to dictate play. But Misolic’s crosscourt backhand and timely changes of direction often nullify that pattern. His ability to flatten out the ball and redirect pace has been a major issue for Carabelli in both their prior meetings.

That said, this match has a few new variables. Carabelli arrives in better form, fresher, and with two confidence-boosting ATP wins this week. Bastad’s quicker conditions might also help him gain traction on offense more than in Bucharest.

Still, Misolic is riding a serious wave of momentum. He’s 11–2 in his last 13 matches and has shown the grit to grind through tight three-setters—proving he can win ugly when needed.

🔮 Prediction

Expect a battle with swings in momentum. Carabelli may take a set and look the stronger player at times—but Misolic’s consistent form, tactical edge, and prior dominance in the matchup suggest he’ll find a way through once more.

🧩 Projected score: Misolic wins in 3 sets
Confidence: ★★★☆☆ (moderate)