Denis Shapovalov vs Adam Walton

🇲🇽 ATP Los Cabos – Semifinal

Denis Shapovalov vs Adam Walton

🧠 Form & Context

Denis Shapovalov
Shapovalov is starting to string together his best form in quite some time. After winning the title in Dallas earlier this season, the Canadian is into his third semifinal of 2025, and he’s doing it with authority—cruising past Nanda and Schoolkate in straight sets this week.

His serve and forehand have been especially sharp, and his improved shot selection is paying dividends on hard courts. Now 9–6 on the surface this year, he owns quality wins over Fritz, Paul, and Michelsen. Importantly, he also has a recent head-to-head edge—beating Walton 6–3, 6–2 in Indian Wells with little trouble.

Adam Walton
It’s been a career-best week for the Aussie. Walton is into his first ATP semifinal after stringing together quality wins over Pacheco Mendez, Basavareddy, and Duckworth—two of those coming from a set down.

He’s logged 27 hard-court wins this year across Challenger and ATP levels and continues to prove his reliability and grit. Though he lost handily to Shapovalov earlier this year, his current form suggests he’s taken a step forward mentally and tactically.

🔍 Match Breakdown

On paper, Shapovalov holds most of the aces in this matchup—experience, power, and confidence. His aggressive lefty serve, early-striking backhand, and improved discipline are tailor-made for the fast, high-bouncing conditions in Los Cabos. If he keeps his error count low, Walton will struggle to stay in control.

Walton’s best chance lies in extending rallies and forcing Shapovalov to hit extra balls. His counter-punching style and ability to absorb pace have worked well this week, especially in pressure moments. But against a player who doesn’t give him rhythm—and who can finish points off the return—those tools may not be enough.

The altitude here favors explosiveness, and Shapovalov is simply more equipped to take advantage.

🔮 Prediction

This has been a memorable run for Walton, but stylistically this is a tough ask. Shapovalov is in rhythm and in control of his weapons. Unless Denis dips mentally or physically, he should be too much for the Aussie.

🧩 Projected score: Shapovalov wins 6–4, 6–3
Confidence: ★★★★☆ (high)