WTA Hertogenbosch: Mertens vs Alexandrova – Semifinal Preview

WTA Hertogenbosch: Mertens vs Alexandrova – Semifinal Preview

🧠 Form & Context

Elise Mertens
🌱 Flawless Grass Week: Has dropped just 10 games en route to the semifinals—dominant wins over Tomova, Sakkari, and Yuan.
📈 Rebuilding Confidence: A middling clay season (6–5) gave way to a confidence-boosting run on her best surface in terms of titles (9 career titles overall).
🧠 Mental Clarity on Grass: Tactically sound and thrives on quicker surfaces where her flat ball-striking and net skills shine.
📍 Mixed History in ‘s-Hertogenbosch: Best run was a QF in 2016; early exits otherwise.

Ekaterina Alexandrova
🏆 Grass Queen of ‘s-Hertogenbosch: Champion in 2022 & 2023, aiming for a third straight final.
🦾 Comeback Machine: Recovered from a set down vs Kudermetova in QF with big-hitting composure.
🔥 Confident Run: 3 straight wins this week without dropping a completed set.
👣 Fast Surface Specialist: 41–19 W/L career record on grass—first-strike tennis thrives here.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This semi is about controlled construction vs raw aggression. Mertens uses the full court, crafts points with slices and net approaches, and looked especially sharp vs Sakkari. But Alexandrova plays explosive tennis—the kind that thrives in the low-bounce, quick grass environment of 's-Hertogenbosch.

Their 2025 H2H match in Doha was one-sided in Alexandrova’s favor, and her shot tolerance in faster conditions has proved problematic for Mertens. The Belgian must use variation and rhythm-breaking tools, particularly targeting the Alexandrova forehand.

🔮 Prediction

Mertens is playing well, but Alexandrova’s aggressive style, strong history at this event, and psychological edge in the matchup give her the nod. Expect a tight two-setter but in favor of the Russian if she maintains her service rhythm and baseline pressure.

🧩 Pick: Alexandrova in 2 tight sets
🎾 Handicap Tip: Alexandrova -2.5 games
📏 Total Games: Over 20.5 – both players likely hold often on grass

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📊 Tale of the Tape

• H2H: Alexandrova leads 3–2 (last win in Doha 2025, 6–4, 6–2)
• Grass 2025 W/L: Mertens 3–0 | Alexandrova 3–0
• Career Grass W/L: Mertens 33–17 | Alexandrova 41–19
• Titles on Grass: Mertens 2 | Alexandrova 2 (both here)
• Serving Edge: Alexandrova (more aces, higher first serve % on grass)
• Return Game: Mertens better on second serve returns, especially vs slower pace