Semi-final previews from the Lisbon Challenger on clay, with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule and may move with the order of play.
Marco Trungelliti vs Alexander Ritschard
🧠 Form & Context
Marco Trungelliti
- 📊 Ranked No. 90 at 36, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ✅ Beat Caniato and Dodig to reach the semi-finals.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 3–0, including wins at ATP level in Miami and Gstaad in 2025.
- 🏆 Strong in deciding sets: 61% won over his career.
- ⚠️ Lands only 57.8% of first serves.
Alexander Ritschard
- 🔥 Ranked No. 483 at 32, 9–1 in his last 10 and winning 85% of recent matches.
- ✅ Beat Brancaccio and Nagal to reach the semi-finals.
- 🚀 Serving brilliantly recently: 74% on first-serve points.
- 🔓 Converting 47% of break points recently.
- 🏆 Has won 80% of deciding sets this season.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A fourth meeting, and Trungelliti has won all three – twice on clay, including Gstaad last year, and once on hard courts in Miami. He is the favourite at 1.72.
Ritschard arrives on a 9–1 run and has the slightly stronger serve: 69.8% vs 68.2% on first-serve points, with better break-point defence.
On return they are level at 41% of return points each, though Ritschard has been converting 47% of his break chances recently.
Trungelliti has the better career deciding-set record (61% vs 54%), while Ritschard has won 80% of his deciders this season.
Trungelliti has the head-to-head and the experience; Ritschard has the form and the serve. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Trungelliti | Ritschard |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 90 | 483 |
| Age | 36 | 32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Head-to-head | 3 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.8% | 59.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.2% | 69.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.4% | 50.0% |
| Break points saved | 59.7% | 60.5% |
| Break points converted | 41.8% | 41.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 53% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 61% | 54% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 60% |
Svyatoslav Gulin vs Elmer Moller
🧠 Form & Context
Svyatoslav Gulin
- 📊 Ranked No. 545 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ✅ Beat Schoen, Andrej Martin and Pellegrino to reach the semi-finals.
- 🎾 Stronger on the second serve: 52.4% won.
- 🏆 Has won 58% of deciding sets, with a 69% career record in best-of-three.
- ⚠️ Has won only 41% of deciding sets this season.
Elmer Moller
- 📈 Ranked No. 163 at 23, 7–3 in his last 10.
- ✅ Beat the home favourite Rocha in the quarter-finals.
- ⚔️ Won their only meeting, 1–6 7–5 6–2 at an ITF event in Heraklion in 2023.
- 🔁 The better returner: 45% of return points won and 46.4% of break points converted.
- ⚠️ Weak on the second serve: 46.9% won.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of a three-set ITF meeting in 2023, which Moller won from a set down. Moller is the favourite at 1.40 after knocking out the home favourite Rocha.
Gulin has the clear edge on the second serve (52.4% vs 46.9%) and slightly better numbers behind his first serve.
Moller is the better returner – 45% of return points against 43% – and both convert around 46% of their break chances.
Gulin has the better career deciding-set (58% vs 51%) and best-of-three (69% vs 64%) records.
Moller has the ranking, the return and the head-to-head; Gulin has the second serve and the clutch numbers. Closer than the price suggests.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Gulin | Moller |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 545 | 163 |
| Age | 23 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 61.2% | 62.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 66.3% | 65.8% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.4% | 46.9% |
| Break points saved | 58.8% | 58.4% |
| Break points converted | 46.0% | 46.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 43% | 45% |
| Tiebreak win % | 54% | 55% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 58% | 51% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 69% | 64% |
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