Norrie vs Báez

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Norrie vs Báez — Paris R64 Preview

ATP Paris Indoor Hard First Round

🧠 Form & Context

Cameron Norrie

• 📈 2025: 33–27 | Indoors: 2–2; Vienna: d. Rublev (1R), pushed Berrettini to three (R16).
• 🏟️ Back in the Bercy main draw after qualifying last year; best here R16 (2021).
• 🧮 H2H leads 2–0.

Sebastián Báez

• 📉 2025: 24–26 | Indoors: 0–2; still chasing first indoor win since 2023.
• ⛓️ Recent: straight-set losses to Royer (Brussels) and Opelka (Basel).
• 🧊 Bercy 0–3 in R1; career indoors 3–16.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Norrie’s lefty serve patterns (wide on deuce, body into ad) pull Báez off the court and set up that heavy cross-court forehand into line changes. Indoors, the Brit’s return consistency and depth shrink Báez’s already modest first-serve threat, cutting off free points and forcing neutral exchanges.

Báez can mix tempo and use the backhand to hold shape, but extended hold sequences indoors tilt toward Norrie’s rally tolerance. Keep Norrie’s second-serve dip in check and the scoreboard pressure should stack early.

🔮 Prediction

Matchup + venue + recent signals all align. Báez’s indoor skid vs Norrie’s Vienna uptick suggests a controlled day for the Brit.

Pick: Norrie in two (6–4, 6–3 lives).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• H2H: Norrie 2–0.
• Indoor form: Norrie steady; Báez winless since 2023.
• Serve/return fit: Lefty patterns + depth favor Norrie.
• Venue history: Norrie R16 ceiling; Báez 0–3 R1 here.
• Game script: Longer rallies > Norrie; short, first-strike bursts are Báez’s path.