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Iva Jovic vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Wuhan R32 Preview
🧠 Form & Context
🇺🇸 Iva Jovic (#39, right)
- 2025: 36–16 | Hard: 20–11 📈
- ✅ Breakthrough season: Guadalajara (WTA 500) champion, Cincinnati R3, USO R2.
- ⚠️ China swing: losses to Eva Lys (Beijing) & Lulu Sun (Suzhou); entered Wuhan as LL after losing to Gracheva in qualies.
🇪🇸 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (#47, right)
- 2025: 28–22 | Hard: 13–11 📈
- ✅ Hard-court rise: Montreal QF, Cincinnati R16, Beijing R3.
- ✅ Wuhan R1: def. Gracheva 7–6, 6–2 in heat/humidity.
- 🔁 Last 14 months: 19 tour-level hard MD wins after 0 before Aug ’24.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Patterns & tempo: Jovic’s peak is first-strike—early ball-taking and baseline aggression off both wings. Bouzas Maneiro is the sturdier rally manager right now, happy to absorb pace and rebuild the point before redirecting.
Serve/return battle: If Jovic’s first-serve percentage dips, Bouzas’ compact return forces neutral starts and longer exchanges where she edges it. Conversely, Jovic must attack Bouzas’ second serve and finish within the 2–4 shot window.
Conditions: Wuhan’s humidity has bothered Jovic this swing; Bouzas just thrived through a muggy, physical R1—small conditioning/adjustment tick to the Spaniard.
Scoreboard pressure: Bouzas has been closing well through Asia. Jovic runs hot (ceilingy streaks) but momentum swings have cut both ways in China.
🔮 Prediction
Jovic owns the higher ceiling shotmaking, but current form-in-region and point-construction reliability lean toward Bouzas Maneiro. Over a long, attritional baseline match, the Spaniard’s consistency should tell.
Pick: Bouzas Maneiro in three sets (scoreline zone: 4–6, 6–4, 6–3).
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Edge | Quick Note |
|---|---|---|
| Serve (1st ball) | Jovic (ceiling) | Heavier first strike when the % holds. |
| Return vs 2nd | Bouzas Maneiro | Compact reads; forces neutral starts. |
| Rally management | Bouzas Maneiro | Absorb–reset–redirect sequencing. |
| Finishing in 2–4 shots | Jovic | Early contact off both wings. |
| Conditions / fitness | Bouzas Maneiro | Handled Wuhan heat/humidity in R1. |
| Variance vs stability | Jovic (variance) / Bouzas (stability) | Peak vs consistency trade-off. |
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