Belinda Bencic vs Elise Mertens

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Belinda Bencic vs Elise Mertens — Wuhan R32 Preview

WTA Wuhan Hard Court Round of 32

🧠 Form & Context

Belinda Bencic

• Back in the top 20 roughly a year after maternity leave; Abu Dhabi champion, Indian Wells QF, Wimbledon SF.
• Wuhan track: never past R2 before, but opened crisply here — def. Vekic 6–2, 6–2.
• 2025: 31–15 overall | 23–10 on hard.

Elise Mertens

• Reliable 2025 volume; peaks at WTA 250s — titles in Singapore & Rosmalen, Hobart finalist.
• Also modest Wuhan history (never beyond R2); R1 here: def. P. Kudermetova 7–6, 6–3 after saving four SPs in the first.
• 2025: 35–19 overall | 16–12 on hard.

H2H: Mertens leads 1–0 (Australian Open 2021).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Baseline dynamics: Bencic is best taking the ball early and redirecting pace off both wings — the backhand down-the-line is a lever. With first-strike accuracy, she keeps Mertens reacting and denies rhythm.

Counterpunch & depth: Mertens brings tireless rally tolerance and smart depth. If exchanges lengthen, she can force Bencic into neutrality and test patience on the fifth to eighth ball.

Serve/return window: Neither leans on aces; return games are live on both sides. Margins likely come from Bencic’s sharper plus-one patterns versus Mertens’ ability to squeeze second serves.

History & confidence: While the H2H tilts Mertens, the 2025 form lens favors Bencic — especially after a clean opener and a stronger hard-court résumé this season.

🔮 Prediction

Lean Bencic in a tight, return-heavy match. Expect swings and long scoreboard tussles, but if the Swiss holds line depth and keeps the BH DTL landing, she should edge the key moments.

Pick: Bencic in three sets.

📊 Tale of the Tape

Category	Edge	Quick Note
First-strike redirect (BH DTL)	Bencic	Early contact, clean line changes.
Neutral rally tolerance	Mertens	Depth + patience in extended exchanges.
Return vs 2nd serve	Mertens (slight)	Good at squeezing second-serve patterns.
Plus-one patterns	Bencic	Sharper first strike on hard this season.
On-site form (R1 read)	Bencic	Crisp win over Vekic; looked dialed in.
H2H / Context	Split	Mertens 1–0 H2H; 2025 form leans Bencic.