Ruud vs Berrettini

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Ruud vs Berrettini — Tokyo R2 Preview

ATP Tokyo Hard Court Round of 16

🧠 Form & Context

Casper Ruud (🇳🇴 #12)

• ✅ Survived R1 vs Mochizuki after a slow start (4–6, 6–1, 6–1).
• 📉 Patchy North America: early losses to Rinderknech (Cincy) & Collignon (USO).
• 🧭 Tokyo record: never past QF here; a win today would match best run.
• 🛠️ Patterns: heavy FH to BH, depth-first; confidence a bit fragile right now.

Matteo Berrettini (🇮🇹 #56)

• ↩️ Comeback mode: rusty in Hangzhou (L to Svrcina), sharper in Tokyo R1 (d. Munar).
• 🩹 Fitness question: recurring setbacks in 2025; form can swing with health.
• 💥 Weapons travel: big serve + FH suit Tokyo’s quicker hard; ROS can lag.
• 📜 Asia history: R16 here last year (ret.); last Asian QF was Shanghai 2019.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve dynamic: Berrettini should bank more free points; Ruud must crowd 2nd serves and block returns low into the BH corner to neutralize +1 forehands.

Baseline exchanges: Longer rallies lean Ruud (height/shape, cross-court discipline). If Matteo compresses to ≤4 shots, he flips the edge with first-strike patterns.

Scoreboard pressure: Ruud’s confidence has wobbled—early breaks or TB swings loom large. If Matteo’s fitness holds, short explosive patches can decide sets.

X-factor: Ruud’s higher recent match volume vs top fields versus Matteo’s freshness/uncertainty.

🔮 Prediction

Ruud in 3 sets. Berrettini’s serve/forehand will claw plenty, but Ruud’s rally tolerance and return depth should create just enough cracks—especially if Matteo’s movement dips in longer passages.

Pick: Ruud 2–1 (tiebreak involvement live).