Kudermetova P. vs Kenin S.

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Kudermetova vs Kenin — Beijing R32 Preview

WTA Beijing Hard Court Round of 32

🧠 Form & Context

Polina Kudermetova (WTA #76)

• 📉 Mid-season slump (3 wins across 14 events) after a hot Brisbane start.
• ✅ Beijing opener: d. Inglis 7–5, 7–6 — rallied from 2–5 in set 1 and saved a SP in the TB for her first MD win here.
• 🔧 Strengths: clean first strike, early contact off both wings; second serve can wobble under heat.

Sofia Kenin (WTA #26)

• ♻️ Resurgence cooled after a strong first half (Tokyo/Charleston finals in the last 12 months).
• ❗️No back-to-back MD wins since Roland Garros R3; arrives with a bye here.
• 🔧 Strengths: elite redirection, high-precision ROS, backhand DTL; needs steadier first-serve %.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Baselines & tempo: If Polina lands a high first-serve clip and keeps points short with early FH takes, she can front-run. Kenin will look to neutralize pace, work BH DTL into Polina’s forehand, and live off second-serve looks.

Patterns: Kenin thrives on change of direction + depth (BH DTL → FH open court). Polina must avoid mid-court backhands and protect the ad-court second serve from Kenin’s compact return.

Scoreboard pressure: In 4-all / 5-all pockets, Kenin’s big-point experience typically shows; Polina’s lapses tend to cluster late.

🔮 Prediction

Kenin in two tight sets. Stylistically favorable for Sofia’s redirect-and-absorb against Polina’s pace, and her return should create enough second-serve pressure to tip key games — even if Polina’s purple patches keep both sets close.

Pick: Kenin 7–6, 6–4 (scoreline range; TB live).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Polina’s Beijing spark vs Kenin’s recent stall with higher ceiling when dialed.
• Serve/Return: Edge Polina on raw first-strike; edge Kenin on ROS and DTL redirection.
• Rally length: Short favors Polina; structured, direction-change rallies favor Kenin.
• High-leverage games: Experience tilt to Kenin at 4-4/5-5.
• Second-serve hinge: If Kenin consistently dents Polina’s ad-court 2nd, breaks follow.