Rakhimova vs Gauff

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Rakhimova vs Gauff — Beijing R32 Preview

WTA Beijing Hard Court Round of 32

🧠 Form & Context

Coco Gauff (WTA #3)

• 🏆 Slam ledger: Roland-Garros ’25 champion; USO R16 loss to Osaka.
• 📉 Hard-court dip (no SF in 2025) but 10–1 lifetime in Beijing — SF ’23, title ’24. Event fits her patterns.
• 🧩 Matchup edge: elite return and backhand robustness on slower hard.

Kamilla Rakhimova (WTA #89)

• ✅ Opened with a clean win over Bronzetti (6–4, 6–1); season body of work modest.
• 🚧 This year vs top-20 on hard (completed matches): 0–8.
• 🇨🇳 First Beijing MD win came in 2024 (R2). Needs a high first-serve clip and early takes to avoid Coco’s rhythm locks.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve/Return: Gauff should feast on second serves; her ROS depth pins Rakhimova into BH corners and sets up early pressure games.

Rally patterns: Coco’s BH cross compresses time, then she finishes with FH inside-out. Kamilla must change direction DTL early to keep Coco honest and avoid getting funneled into defensive forehands.

Scoreboard pressure: With Coco’s Beijing comfort and Kamilla’s struggles vs the tier, long deuce games are likely to tilt to the favorite — especially late in sets.

🔮 Prediction

Gauff in two sets. One tight set is live if Rakhimova serves well early, but Coco’s return + athletic defense should separate as patterns settle.

Pick: Gauff 6–4, 6–3 (scoreline range; TB risk low–moderate).

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Gauff’s Beijing pedigree vs Rakhimova’s modest season.
• Serve/Return: Big ROS edge to Gauff; Kamilla needs 62%+ first serves to hold posture.
• Rally length: Neutral-to-long exchanges favor Coco’s BH structure.
• Physicality: Defense-to-offense bursts from Coco widen margins across sets.
• Upset path: Kamilla must land first strike DTLs early and nick a breaker; otherwise the favorite grinds clear.