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Emma Raducanu vs Jessica Pegula — Beijing R3 Preview
🧠 Form & Context
Emma Raducanu (🇬🇧 #32)
- 2025 hard: 17–11; rolled Bucsa 6–3, 6–3 in R2.
- Quality summer: Washington SF (wins over Osaka, Sakkari); steady results across surfaces.
- Patterns: aggressive first strike on return; early BH timing with DTL change to flip rallies.
Jessica Pegula (🇺🇸 #7)
- 2025 hard: 28–10; cruised past Tomljanović 6–0, 6–3 here.
- Big-match seasoning: Miami finalist, USO SF; elite hold/return balance.
- Patterns: heavy FH cross to set BH line; superb depth control, minimal unforced patches.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Serve/Return: Pegula’s compact ROS targets Emma’s 2nd serve; Raducanu needs first-serve spots (body & ad-T) to avoid neutral starts.
Rally shape: Short, first-strike exchanges favor Emma; extended patterns lean Pegula, who edits errors out of sets.
Scoreboard pressure: If Emma nicks the opener, her front-running is strong; Pegula’s experience shines in closing time, especially in tight third sets.
H2H lens: Pegula leads 2–1, including Miami ’25 QF (Pegula in 3). Emma’s win came on grass (Eastbourne ’24).
🔮 Prediction
Pegula 2–1. Pegula’s higher floor and return patterns target Emma’s most fragile phase (2nd serve). Raducanu’s path is to take time away on return and lean on BH DTL to steal court; live dog if her first-serve clip stays high and points stay short.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Emma Raducanu | Jessica Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Form this week | ✅ Straight-sets over Bucsa. | ✅ Cruise vs Tomljanović (6–0, 6–3). |
| 2025 Hard W-L | 17–11 — streaks with first-strike returns. | 28–10 — balanced hold/return profile. |
| Serve / 2nd-serve exposure | Needs precise spots to avoid Pegula ROS heat. | Compact ROS punishes mid 2nd serves. |
| Baseline patterns | BH DTL trigger; takes early to rob time. | FH cross to set BH line; edits errors out. |
| Closing time | Front-runs well when ahead. | Composed in late sets/tiebreaks. |
| H2H | Pegula leads 2–1 (Miami ’25 Pegula in 3; Raducanu’s win on grass at Eastbourne ’24). | |
Leans: Pegula ML; Raducanu live if early returns bite and her first-serve% holds above ~62%.
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