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Mirra Andreeva vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Beijing R3 Preview
🧠 Form & Context
Mirra Andreeva (🇷🇺 #5)
- 🚀 Big-event surge: titles in Dubai & Indian Wells; QFs at Roland-Garros & Wimbledon.
- 🔧 Beijing start: d. Zhu Lin 6–2, 6–2 despite ~3 dozen UEs — weight of shot still decisive.
- 📈 2025: 39–13 overall, 24–6 on hard; Beijing record: R16 (2023), QF (2024).
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (🇪🇸 #48)
- ✅ Beijing reboot: d. Cristian 6–4, 6–0; d. Yastremska 7–5, 6–4 after a 4-match skid.
- 🛠️ Hard-court gains: R16 Cincinnati, QF Montreal, R4 Wimbledon.
- 📈 2025: 27–21 overall, 12–10 on hard.
🔍 Match Breakdown
First-strike gap: Mirra’s serve patterns and forehand redirections shorten points and can rush JBM’s rhythm.
Pattern control: JBM needs lengthened rallies and backhand cross patterns; Mirra’s counter-punch → sudden offense tends to crack those sequences.
Scoreboard pressure: Best JBM script = quick starts and holds from ahead; Mirra has been an elite front-runner at WTA 1000+ all year.
Court comfort: Third straight multi-win Beijing campaign for Mirra — familiarity shows.
🔮 Prediction
Andreeva in two sets. JBM can make the opener sticky, but Mirra’s return patterns and heavier baseline weight should tilt the key points.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Mirra Andreeva | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Form trend | 🔥 Titles at Dubai & IW; deep Slam QFs; cruising start in Beijing. | ⬆️ Stabilized after skid; two straight-set wins to open Beijing. |
| Serve/First-strike | Edge — uses patterns to set FH strikes and finish early. | Solid when landing 1st serve, but vulnerable if points extend. |
| Return/Pressure | Elite at 1000+ this year; front-running metrics strong. | Needs early leads; chasing breaks risks error clusters. |
| Rally tolerance | Can absorb then flip to offense off both wings. | Better in structured BH exchanges and longer patterns. |
| Beijing history | R16 ’23, QF ’24 — comfort established. | On the rise this week — confidence building. |
| H2H | First meeting (0–0). | |
Leans: Andreeva ML; JBM live looks only if she jumps ahead early and holds serve with comfort.
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