Tomljanovic A. - Alexandrova E.

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Tomljanović vs Alexandrova — Monterrey R16 Preview

WTA Monterrey Hard Court Round of 16

🧠 Form & Context

Ajla Tomljanović

• ✅ Survived a thriller vs Zarazúa (saved 5 MPs) — first Monterrey win since 2018.
• ⏳ Consistency issues: no runs beyond 2R since Rabat SF (May).
• ⚠️ Physically tested: multiple long 3‑setters; retirements in Rabat & Indian Wells.
• 📉 Current rank No. 84 mirrors lack of deep runs despite big scalps (Pegula in Austin, Paolini at RG).

Ekaterina Alexandrova

• 🔥 Career‑best window: up to No. 14; 7 QFs in last 10 events.
• 🏆 2025 titles/rounds: Linz champion; SFs in Charleston, Stuttgart, Hertogenbosch, Doha.
• 🇲🇽 Monterrey 2024: semifinalist (lost 7–6 in the 3rd to Lulu Sun).
• 💪 All‑surface steady: 32–17 this season with strong grass/clay showings too.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head‑to‑Head: Alexandrova leads 1–0 (Eastbourne 2019, 7–6, 6–2 on grass).

• Tomljanović: counterpunching, defensive resilience, extends rallies; struggles to finish points under pace.
• Alexandrova: first‑strike power, flat ropes, live ace count when serve is humming.

Conditions: Medium‑paced Monterrey hard should reward early strike/line‑hugging depth — a natural lean to Alexandrova’s patterns.

Serve/return texture: If Ajla’s first‑serve dip shows (post‑marathon fatigue risk), Alexandrova will feast on second‑serve looks and compress time off the ground.

Upset path (Ajla): Drag exchanges cross‑court to the Alexandrova backhand, vary height/shape, and turn this into a legs test. Scoreboard protection early in sets is essential.

🔮 Prediction

Form, weapons, and surface fit favor Alexandrova. Tomljanović will scrap, but sustaining resistance across two sets against a top‑15 hitter in these conditions is a tall order.

Pick: Alexandrova in straight sets. Score lean: something like 6–4, 6–3.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Ajla patchy & battle‑worn; Alexandrova steady and peaking.
• Surface fit: Medium‑fast hard amplifies Alexandrova’s first‑strike gear.
• First‑strike vs. resilience: Power/flat depth vs grind/counter.
• Pressure points: Ajla’s serve under scoreboard heat vs Alexandrova’s improved tie‑break/closing this year.
• Durability watch: Ajla’s recent mileage/retirements vs Alexandrova’s clean fitness trend.