Mannarino vs Paul

ATP Cincinnati

Adrian Mannarino – Tommy Paul

🧠 Form & Context

Adrian Mannarino

• 🎯 Solid start in Cincy: Came through qualifying, then beat Thompson and Machac in straight sets.
• 📌 Loves this venue: 2023 quarterfinalist, three R16 runs — one of his better Masters events.
• ⚙️ Tricky southpaw: Flat, low ball trajectory frustrates rhythm players.
• ⛔ Top-20 drought: No wins over a top-20 player this season; last was against Paul (Paris 2024).
• 🔄 2025 form: 27–29 overall, but a strong 14–6 on grass earlier this year.

Tommy Paul

• 🏥 Injury recovery: Abdominal issue since Roland-Garros disrupted grass swing & summer prep.
• 🎯 Soft opener: Eased past an unfit Pedro Martinez 6-2, 6-2 in R2.
• ⚠️ Cincinnati struggles: Just one R16 run in 7 appearances (5–6 record here).
• 💪 Hard-court capability: 11–4 on hard in 2025, with titles earlier this season.
• 🔁 H2H history: 1–1 with Mannarino; Paul’s win came at Wimbledon 2022, Mannarino’s at Paris 2024.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Paul brings a higher athletic ceiling, heavier ball, and better serve-receive pressure than Mannarino’s earlier opponents. But questions remain over his match sharpness after limited court time since Wimbledon.

Mannarino’s flat lefty game will look to keep Paul uncomfortable — drawing errors with skidding slices, robbing him of height and rhythm, and opening the court with the crosscourt forehand. If the Frenchman serves well and stays low on returns, he can turn this into a cat-and-mouse battle.

Paul’s clearest route is first-strike tennis — stepping in on second serves, attacking early in rallies, and using his forehand to open angles. If rallies stay short, his power advantage should tilt the match. But extended patterns could play into Mannarino’s hands, especially if Paul’s movement is still a half-step slow from his injury layoff.

🔮 Prediction

This is a dangerous matchup for Paul given his Cincinnati history, recent injury return, and Mannarino’s comfort at this event. Expect plenty of cat-and-mouse points and shifts in momentum. If Paul serves north of 65% first serves and wins over 70% behind it, he should escape.

Prediction: Paul in 3 tight sets — but with a genuine upset threat if Mannarino controls the tempo early.

🏷️ Labels: ATP Cincinnati, Adrian Mannarino, Tommy Paul, Tennis Predictions, Match Preview