Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Ofner

🎾 Wimbledon 2025 – Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Ofner Preview

ATP – 1/32 Finals | Grass | July 3, 2025

🧠 Form & Context

Tommy Paul
🎯 Perfect start: Dispatched Johannus Monday 6–4, 6–4, 6–2 in R1, his first grass win of 2025 and a confidence boost after a first-round loss in Eastbourne.
📈 Major consistency: Quarterfinalist at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros this season. Has reached at least R3 in his last 8 Grand Slam appearances.
🌱 Grass credentials: Wimbledon QF in 2024, R16 in 2022, with a career 33–17 record on grass.
💪 Battle-tested: Strong 26–10 record in 2025, showing his ability to win even when not at peak form.

Sebastian Ofner
🔁 Back from brink: Benefited from a retirement win over Hamad Medjedovic in R1 (led 7–6, 3–1) after retiring in Mallorca the previous week.
📉 Injury question: Missed much of the grass swing with fitness concerns, and hasn’t beaten a Top 30 player on grass in the last two seasons.
⚔️ Dangerous underdog: Took down Tiafoe at the Rome Masters this year and has a history of pulling off unexpected wins against Americans.
📊 Wimbledon record: Just his second main-draw win at SW19 since reaching R3 in 2017; lost in R1 four times since.

🔍 Match Breakdown

While both players arrive with R1 wins, their circumstances couldn’t be more different. Paul enters as a top-15 seed with a deep Grand Slam track record and a clean performance in R1 that suggested he’s moving and serving well on grass.

Ofner, though gritty and capable, hasn’t shown sustained fitness or rhythm on grass in 2025. His return stats lag behind Paul’s, and he lacks the variety to consistently trouble the American's baseline stability. Unless Paul gets passive or suffers a physical dip, Ofner’s chances hinge on creating chaos early and hoping for a momentum shift.

Importantly, Paul leads the H2H 1–0 (Shanghai 2023, 6–3, 6–0), and although that was on hard court, it underscores the gap in shot tolerance and execution.

🔮 Prediction

Ofner has a puncher’s chance if he plays with aggression and Paul dips. But the American has become a reliable second-week Slam player, especially on grass. Expect Ofner to challenge in one set, but Paul’s serve, return game, and movement edge should shine through.

Prediction: Paul in 4 sets — Ofner may take a set if he redlines early, but Paul’s Slam pedigree and all-court game will carry him through.