Pegula vs Sakkari

🇨🇦 Pegula vs Sakkari – WTA Montreal R2 Preview

🧠 Form & Context

• Jessica Pegula
  🏆 Canadian dominance: Defending champion in Montreal (2023) and Toronto (2024), both with just one set dropped across those title runs.
  🇺🇸 Hard-court queen: Finalist in Miami, Cincinnati, US Open in recent years. Owns a 20–7 hard-court record this season.
  📉 Recent blip: Shock R16 exit in Washington (loss to Fernandez) but remains one of the most consistent players on North American soil.
  🔁 Head-to-head edge: Leads Sakkari 6–5 and won their last three meetings in straight sets.
• Maria Sakkari
  🔄 Rollercoaster year: Still ranked No. 72 and battling confidence. Hadn't won back-to-back main-draw matches in 2025 until D.C. last week.
  😮 Survived R1 scare: Barely got past wildcard Carson Branstine in a 2.5-hour match, showing vulnerability.
  🚨 Top-10 struggles: Has lost 13 of her last 15 matches vs. top-10 players, often falling short in key moments.
  📍 Montreal struggles: Just 4 wins in 6 appearances at the tournament.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Pegula is the clear favorite—not just based on form, but also based on matchup comfort. She’s beaten Sakkari in 4 of their last 5 meetings, often exploiting the Greek’s passive stretches with her aggressive returns and early ball timing. Pegula thrives on North American hard courts, and this event seems tailor-made for her game.

Sakkari, for all her grit and athleticism, continues to play nervy tennis in tight moments. She coughed up a second set lead against Branstine, showing just how shaky her confidence remains. While her win in Washington over Navarro was impressive, she will need to elevate significantly to challenge Pegula here.

Unless Pegula plays below her level or starts poorly, this matchup heavily favors the American tactically and mentally. Sakkari needs an extraordinary day to break her recent top-10 curse.

🔮 Prediction

Jessica Pegula has made Canada her second home over the last two summers, and unless Sakkari rediscovers her very best, this looks headed toward another routine win for the world No. 4.
Prediction: Pegula in 2 sets – expect Sakkari to fight but fall short in key return games and pressure moments.