Francisco Comesaña 🇦🇷 vs Roberto Carballés Baena 🇪🇸

ATP Gstaad – Round of 16
Clay (Altitude) | Wednesday, 17 July

🎾 Francisco Comesaña 🇦🇷 vs Roberto Carballés Baena 🇪🇸

🧠 Form & Context

Francisco Comesaña
🌋 Breakout clay form: The 24-year-old Argentine is having a breakthrough year at tour level, going 17–12 on clay and breaking into the Top 75.
📈 Building momentum: Back-to-back wins over Martinez, Fils, and Trungelliti this clay swing suggest growing confidence and tactical maturity.
🇨🇭 Gstaad debut: Picked up a solid R1 win over countryman Trungelliti and seems well-adjusted to altitude conditions.
⚠️ Surface specialist: 265 of his 290 career wins have come on clay. He’s still searching for his first ATP title but already owns multiple Challenger trophies on dirt.

Roberto Carballés Baena
🎢 Up-and-down 2025: Just 6–7 on clay this year. Struggled for rhythm and recently retired in Braunschweig QF.
⚔️ Narrow survival: Escaped Taberner in R1 with a final-set tiebreak and has looked far from his 2023 ATP title-winning level.
🧱 Experience edge: Over 600 career match wins and 2 ATP clay titles. But age (32) and recent injury struggles raise durability questions in three-setters.
🇨🇭 Mixed Gstaad history: QF in 2019, but early exits in 2022 and 2023 suggest this high-altitude clay doesn't fully suit his grinding baseline style.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Comesaña enters this clash as the fresher, more dynamic clay-courter, with an aggressive topspin-heavy forehand and comfort stepping inside the baseline to finish. His timing on return and depth of backhand have improved throughout 2025, especially in Madrid and Rome where he pushed Rune and beat Fils.

Carballés Baena, on the other hand, is a defensive-minded counterpuncher who thrives when given time to construct points—but his game lacks explosiveness at altitude. He’s been error-prone when rushed and susceptible to fatigue in long matches, as seen in his recent Challenger retirement.

The court speed in Gstaad slightly favors the first-striker. If Comesaña serves well and keeps his forehand firing, he could dominate rallies. But he must manage his unforced error count—Carballés Baena will test his patience with loopy topspin and deep positioning.

🔮 Prediction

Given Comesaña’s clay confidence and Carballés Baena’s declining form and recent fitness doubts, the Argentine should control this match—especially if it gets physical. Expect moments of resistance from the Spaniard, but Comesaña’s heavier groundstrokes and cleaner baseline game should prevail.

Projected score: Comesaña 6-4, 3-6, 6-4
Confidence: ★★☆☆☆ – small stake; look to trade after Carballés’ slow starts.