🇨🇦 Gabriel Diallo vs 🇦🇺 Aleksandar Vukic

🎾 ATP Hertogenbosch – First Round

🇨🇦 Gabriel Diallo vs 🇦🇺 Aleksandar Vukic

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🧠 Form & Context

Gabriel Diallo

• 🔥 Momentum builder: Impressive wins this clay season over Musetti, Dimitrov, Norrie, and Griekspoor.
• 📈 19–16 in 2025, including 3–4 on grass; very capable of handling pace and firepower.
• 📍 Hertogenbosch debut, but has strong form entering this week.
• 💪 Physically dominant and mentally composed—especially in long rallies and tiebreaks.
• 🧱 Played 7 matches in Madrid alone, showing endurance and rhythm in back-to-back wins.

Aleksandar Vukic

• 📉 Struggling season: Just 8–18 in 2025; only 1 main draw win since Estoril in April.
• 🌱 Grass record weak: 0–1 this year, and just 19–17 lifetime.
• ❗ Confidence dip: Lost to Virtanen, Khachanov, and Korda easily in recent matches.
• ✅ H2H edge: Beat Diallo in Australian Open qualifying last year (6-3, 6-4).
• 🎯 Best 2024 grass result: QF here at Hertogenbosch, but big drop in performance since then.

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🔍 Match Breakdown

Diallo comes in fresh off a stellar clay stretch, now transitioning to a surface where his big serve and first-strike potential translate well. While grass isn’t his most proven surface, his physicality and timing should cause problems for the out-of-form Vukic.

Vukic’s aggressive style can work on grass when executed well, but recent results suggest a lack of rhythm and conviction. His ground game has been leaking errors, and he’s found little joy converting tight sets. If Diallo can maintain serve and keep points short, he’s in a strong position to control the tempo.

One potential edge for Vukic is prior grass success at this very tournament, reaching the QF last year. But his confidence seems to have eroded, and his recent loss to Virtanen on this surface suggests trouble.

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🔮 Prediction

Despite the head-to-head loss, Diallo is clearly the more in-form player and has shown the stamina, weapons, and belief to handle big matches. Unless Vukic rediscovers his 2023 grass game quickly, this could be a tough outing.

✅ Pick: Diallo in 2 tight sets – expect tiebreak potential
🎯 Bonus leans:

• Set betting: Diallo 2–0
• Over/Under: Over 22.5 games (tiebreak or long set likely)
• Handicap: Diallo -2.5 games