🇬🇧 Jacob Fearnley vs 🇺🇸 Brandon Nakashima

🎾 ATP Stuttgart – First Round

🇬🇧 Jacob Fearnley vs 🇺🇸 Brandon Nakashima

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🧠 Form & Context

Jacob Fearnley

• 🔥 22–13 in 2025 and coming off a confident clay campaign (10–6).
• 🚀 Hasn't played a grass match yet this season but owns a solid 10–5 career record on the surface.
• 📈 Big-serving Brit with efficient movement and growing confidence at the tour level.
• 👊 Made a breakthrough this clay swing with wins over Humbert, Lajovic, Moutet, and Fognini.
• 💪 Competing in Stuttgart for the first time—his aggressive court style should suit the fast conditions.

Brandon Nakashima

• 📉 2025 has been streaky: 16–16 W/L with a few strong results on hard but little consistency elsewhere.
• 🇩🇪 Semifinalist here in Stuttgart last year, meaning this is one of his better-performing grass events.
• ⛔ No grass matches played yet this year and has not looked sharp on clay (7–8).
• 📊 Grass record is modest: 24–16 career, but most success came early in his pro run.
• 🧱 Solid counterpuncher who thrives on hard courts but can be rushed on quicker surfaces.

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🔍 Match Breakdown

Both players come into this with questions. Nakashima has the better hard-court resume and past Stuttgart semifinal to lean on, but he hasn’t played a match on grass in 2025 and his confidence is shaky after early clay exits.

Fearnley, on the other hand, has built serious momentum and has a game that naturally suits grass: strong serve, flat drives, and aggressive positioning.

The British player has more current match toughness, and his results against higher-level opponents suggest he could be ready for a top-40 scalp. The matchup likely comes down to who serves more effectively—Fearnley has a slight edge in first-strike tennis, while Nakashima will rely on precision and depth.

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🔮 Prediction

Fearnley is the more dynamic player in 2025, and with Stuttgart being a fast court, his grass instincts could carry him past the American who’s still finding his rhythm. Expect at least one tiebreak, but the Brit should edge this one.

✅ Pick: Fearnley in 3 sets – better momentum, suited surface
🎯 Bonus leans:

• Set betting: Fearnley 2–1
• Over/Under: Over 23.5 games (tight margins expected)
• Handicap: Fearnley -1.5 games