WTA Rome: Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens

WTA Rome: Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens

🧠 Form & Context

Jessica Pegula
Pegula enters this clash with a stellar 2025 resume—28 wins, four finals, and an increasingly well-rounded clay game. Though early exits in Stuttgart and Madrid briefly halted her momentum, she remains one of the most consistent players on tour. Her R2 victory over Ashlyn Krueger was her first in Rome since 2021 and could be the start of a deeper run at Foro Italico.

Elise Mertens
Mertens’ Rome performances have lacked consistency since her 2020 quarterfinal run. She edged past Suzan Lamens in R2 and is striving to regain a top-20 spot after a solid season that includes a title in Singapore and a QF in Stuttgart. However, her form remains patchy, and she’s struggled against top-tier opponents on clay this year.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This matchup pits Pegula’s relentless depth and control against Mertens’ tactical backhand and redirection skills. While Mertens has historically troubled Pegula—owning a 3–1 head-to-head advantage—the American turned the tide with a straight-sets win in their most recent meeting in Melbourne.

On clay, Pegula’s improved rally tolerance and point construction make her a more difficult opponent to break down. If she manages her margins and forces Mertens into elongated exchanges, her superior consistency and movement should take over.

🔮 Prediction

Mertens is capable of testing Pegula, especially with her flat pace and court coverage. But Pegula’s form, recent H2H edge, and tactical growth on clay give her a slight but clear upper hand.

Prediction: Pegula in 2 tight sets, with her return depth and patience proving decisive in key moments.