WTA Rome: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk

WTA Rome: Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk

🧠 Form & Context

Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka steps into the role of top favorite with Iga Swiatek’s exit, looking to finally claim the Rome crown after two previous deep runs (SF in 2022, F in 2024). She continues her dominant 2025 campaign with a 33–5 record, highlighted by titles in Madrid and Miami. Surviving a stern test from Sofia Kenin in the previous round further reinforced her championship readiness.

Marta Kostyuk
Kostyuk is quietly putting together her finest WTA 1000 campaign yet, dismissing Alexandra Eala, Daria Kasatkina, and Leylah Fernandez without dropping a set. Her leap in consistency this year has made her a top-30 fixture, and her growth on slower clay has been a standout improvement entering Rome 2025.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Sabalenka’s raw power, first-serve dominance, and heavy groundstrokes have historically overwhelmed Kostyuk. Their meetings, including a recent encounter in Madrid, showed that while the gap has narrowed, Sabalenka’s ability to dictate with depth and pace still tilts the balance heavily in her favor.

Kostyuk’s best chance lies in using her improved defensive skills to frustrate Sabalenka, forcing longer rallies and capitalizing on any dips in the Belarusian’s high-risk game. However, unless she disrupts Sabalenka’s rhythm early, the mental hurdle of never having taken a set off her opponent looms large.

Key Factors:
- Sabalenka’s first serve effectiveness.
- Kostyuk’s ability to extend rallies and change pace.
- Psychological edge: Sabalenka’s 3–0 H2H dominance.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Kostyuk's rise is undeniable, but Sabalenka’s firepower, experience, and momentum make her the strong favorite. Expect a spirited challenge from Kostyuk, but ultimately Sabalenka’s baseline control should secure the win.

🧩 Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in 2 tight sets, with a real possibility of a tiebreak along the way.