ATP Rome: Denis Shapovalov vs Vilius Gaubas

ATP Rome: Denis Shapovalov vs Vilius Gaubas

🧠 Form & Context

Denis Shapovalov
After a promising hard court stretch earlier this year—with a title in Dallas and a semifinal in Acapulco—Shapovalov’s clay campaign has hit turbulence. He’s just 1–3 on dirt this spring and retired mid-match in Munich against a teenager. Yet Rome has been one of his more fruitful clay stops, with a semifinal in 2020 and a dramatic win over Nadal in 2022 standing out. Still, his recent physical struggles and mental lapses make him a question mark.

Vilius Gaubas
The 19-year-old Lithuanian is riding a wave of confidence. With two Challenger finals in recent weeks, including one in Rome, Gaubas has earned his way into the ATP spotlight. His three-set win over Dzumhur in R1 was a gritty display of physical and mental resilience. Known for his clay-court craft and steady groundstrokes, he’s perfectly suited for dragging out points and punishing inconsistency.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Shapovalov’s explosive game can dominate on faster surfaces, but the slower clay in Rome often exposes his erratic shot-making and low-margin risk-taking. If his serve and backhand are on, he can hit through Gaubas. But when he’s off—as he’s been frequently in 2024—the match can spiral quickly.

Gaubas, on the other hand, will look to extend rallies, mix in heavy topspin, and frustrate Shapovalov with depth and variety. If he holds steady mentally and keeps the match physical, he has a real shot at the upset—especially if Shapovalov’s movement and endurance falter.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Shapovalov in 3 sets. Expect Gaubas to make it a real battle with extended rallies and scoreboard pressure, but if Shapo keeps errors in check, his power game should see him through—barely.