Magdalena Frech vs Peyton Stearns

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Magdalena Frech vs Peyton Stearns — US Open 2R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Magdalena Frech (No. 33, age 27)

• 🇵🇱 Steady baseliner, known more for consistency than explosiveness.
• 📊 2025 record: 11–21 overall, 6–12 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Def. Gibson 6–2, 6–2 — just her 2nd career main-draw win in New York.
• 🏟️ Slam history: AO R3 twice (2024, 2025), Wimbledon R3 (2022). USO best = R2 (2023, l. Muchova).
• ⚠️ Context: Confidence shaky — only 10 wins across her last 21 events before this week.

Peyton Stearns (No. 54, age 23)

• 🇺🇸 NCAA champion, still searching for a stable breakthrough on tour.
• 📊 2025 record: 19–19 overall, 9–12 on hard.
• 🔥 USO R1: Beat qualifier Semenistaja 7–5, 6–0 without dropping serve.
• 🏟️ Slam history: USO R16 in 2023, R3 in 2024 — already proven in New York.
• ⚠️ Form notes: Semifinalist in Rome earlier this year, but hard-court form shaky (2–7 since July entering NY).

🔍 Match Breakdown

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Valentin Royer vs Denis Shapovalov

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Valentin Royer vs Denis Shapovalov — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Valentin Royer (No. 98, age 24)

• 🇫🇷 French late bloomer making strides on the ATP Tour.
• 📊 2025 record: 47–21 overall, 7–5 on hard.
• 🔥 Breakthrough run: 14-match Challenger win streak earlier this year, upset Tsitsipas at Wimbledon, earned MD wins at Cincinnati & US Open.
• 🏟️ Slam record: Wimbledon 2R (l. Mannarino); US Open debut MD — already a career-best Slam showing.
• ⚠️ Limiting factor: Still seeking first Slam R3. Often starts hot but can fade physically vs top-30 opposition.

Denis Shapovalov (No. 29, age 26)

• 🇨🇦 Flamboyant lefty with elite shotmaking upside — and high variance.
• 📊 2025 record: 20–16 overall, 12–8 on hard. Titles: Dallas (i), Los Cabos (h).
• 🔥 USO R1: Routine win over Fucsovics (6–4, 6–4, 6–0).
• 📉 Slam season: AO R2 (Musetti), RG R2 (Misolic), Wimbledon R1 (Navone). No Slam R16 since 2022.
• ⚠️ Wildcard factor: Back-to-back wins in only 3 of 18 events this year → upset-prone vs disciplined defenders.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-Head: First meeting.

Royer’s angle: Gritty baseline patterning with an improving serve; happiest extending rallies and making opponents hit one more ball. He’s shown big-stage composure (d. Tsitsipas at Wimbledon) and plays freer as the underdog.

Shapovalov’s angle: First-strike tennis with a live serve and explosive FH/BH — but streaky decision-making. When locked in, he can take the racquet out of opponents’ hands; when not, errors arrive in clusters.

X-factor: Royer comes in with house-money vibes; Shapo carries the weight of recent Slam underachievement. If rallies lengthen and tempo dips, Shapo’s patience gets stress-tested. If the Canadian serves north of his season baseline and keeps plus-one patterns simple, the ceiling gap shows.

🔮 Prediction

On pure ceiling and experience, Shapovalov is the rightful favorite. Royer is a sticky matchup — organized, stubborn, opportunistic — and can absolutely drag this into long passages. If Shapo’s serve holds up and he trims the shot selection, he should navigate through some turbulence.

Pick: Shapovalov in 4 sets. (Leans: Royer + games handicap looks live.)

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve ceiling: Edge Shapovalov — more free points when timing is on.
• Rally tolerance: Edge Royer — better at stretching exchanges and resetting points.
• Error control: Edge Royer — lower unforced-error profile in neutral.
• First-strike conversion: Edge Shapovalov — dictates with pace/angle off the +1 ball.
• Fitness/5-set profile: Slight Shapovalov — more Bo5 reps at this level.
• Variance: Higher on Shapovalov — tilt swings can open doors for the underdog.

Leandro Riedi vs Francisco Cerúndolo

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Leandro Riedi vs Francisco Cerúndolo — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Leandro Riedi (No. 435, age 23)

• 🇨🇭 Swiss shotmaker, back on the main tour after a difficult injury-plagued year.
• 📊 2025 record: 16–7 overall, 9–4 on hard.
• 🔥 USO run: Qualified without dropping a set, then earned his first-ever Slam MD win vs Pedro Martínez in straights.
• 📉 Context: Missed large parts of 2025 and retired twice since May. Fitness remains fragile, but upside is real — Top-100 ball-striking when healthy.
• 🏟️ Slam record: 0–2 before this week — already a career-best Slam result.

Francisco Cerúndolo (No. 19, age 27)

• 🇦🇷 Established Top-20, clay weight-of-shot but increasingly effective on hard.
• 📊 2025 record: 32–18 (11–5 on hard).
• 🔥 Highlights: Miami QF, Madrid SF, Bastad SF, Toronto R16.
• ⚠️ Recent struggles: Physically off in July (losses to Darderi, Taberner) and retired in Toronto. In USO R1, rallied from 6-3, 6-2, 3-1 down vs Arnaldi to win in 5.
• 🏟️ US Open history: Never beyond R2 (five-set losses in 2023 & 2024).

🔍 Match Breakdown

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Karen Khachanov vs Kamil Majchrzak

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Khachanov vs Majchrzak — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Karen Khachanov (No. 9, age 29)

• 🇷🇺 Back in the top 10 for the first time since 2019.
• 📊 2025 record: 32–18 (13–8 on hard).
• 🔥 Season highlights: Toronto finalist (l. Shelton), Wimbledon QF, SF in Barcelona, consistent deep runs since spring.
• 🏟️ US Open history: SF in 2022, but R1 exits in 2023 & 2024. Opened 2025 campaign with a 4-set win over Basavareddy.
• 💡 Confidence: At least a QF in his last four completed events. Game clicking across surfaces.

Kamil Majchrzak (No. 76, age 29)

• 🇵🇱 Former junior No. 1 rebuilding ranking after suspension.
• 📊 2025 record: 33–19 overall, 16–4 on hard.
• 🔥 Recent form: Won Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger in August, R16 Winston-Salem (lost to Korda).
• 🏟️ Slam 2025: Wimbledon R16 (best Slam run of career, lost to Khachanov). USO R1: Beat Dellien 6-1, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4.
• ⚠️ Fitness flag: Dips physically in longer matches. Against elite ball strikers, struggles to maintain intensity over five.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-Head: Khachanov leads 4–0. Most recent = Wimbledon 2025 R16 (Khachanov won 6-4, 6-2, 6-3).

Khachanov’s strengths: heavy serve + forehand, durable physically, thrives on hard-court rhythm. His baseline weight of shot usually overwhelms Majchrzak.

Majchrzak’s path: Must shorten points, vary pace, and attack Khachanov’s movement. But history shows he struggles to close sets against top-20 players.

Context: Both survived 4-setters in R1, but Khachanov’s Toronto final and Wimbledon QF underline a higher ceiling and greater reliability in Bo5.

🔮 Prediction

Majchrzak is playing some of his best post-suspension tennis, but Khachanov owns this matchup. Their meetings have been one-sided, and with Khachanov’s current confidence and rhythm, the upset seems unlikely. The Pole could sneak a set, yet the Russian’s firepower and stamina should carry him.

Pick: Khachanov in 3 or 4 sets.

Jenson Brooksby vs Flavio Cobolli

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Brooksby vs Cobolli — US Open 2R Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Jenson Brooksby (No. 92, age 24)

• 🇺🇸 Quirky shotmaker returning to Flushing Meadows after suspension.
• 📊 2025: 22–18 overall, 6–7 on hard.
• 🔥 Highlights: ATP Houston champion (clay), Eastbourne finalist (grass).
• 🏟️ US Open: R16 (2021), R3 (2022) — dangerous on home soil.
• ⚠️ R1: Outlasted Vukic in five (6–3, 6–7, 6–4, 3–6, 6–4). Fight is there; best-of-five stamina still a question.

Flavio Cobolli (No. 26, age 23)

• 🇮🇹 Breakthrough year; surged after Hamburg title (d. Rublev in final).
• 📊 2025: 31–21 overall, 7–10 on hard.
• 🔥 Slams: AO R1, RG R3, Wimbledon QF (l. Djokovic).
• 🏟️ US Open: First R2 here (Q in 2022, R1 in 2024).
• ⚠️ R1: Needed five vs Passaro. Seven of his last 10 matches went the distance — resilient but mileage is piling up.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-Head: Brooksby leads 1–0 (Rome 2022, straight sets).

Styles: Brooksby disrupts rhythm with funky tempos and court craft, dragging foes into awkward exchanges — a natural fit in NY conditions. Cobolli brings cleaner baseline punch and confidence from Hamburg/Wimbledon, but can be tempted into longer rallies he doesn’t always finish.

Physical factor: Both come off five-setters. Cobolli has been living in marathons; Brooksby is still proving his five-set engine post-suspension.

Edge calculus: Season consistency tilts Cobolli; environment and matchup nuance (Brooksby’s chaos factor) keep the underdog very live.

🔮 Prediction

Feels like a grind fest with momentum swings. If Cobolli’s legs hold, his heavier baseline weight should shade the big points; if this turns into extended cat-and-mouse, Brooksby’s New York comfort can flip it late.

Pick: Cobolli in five sets — upset potential live if Brooksby feeds off the Ashe/Ny crowd and stretches rallies.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• H2H: Brooksby 1–0 (Rome 2022).
• Form snapshot (2025): Brooksby 22–18 (6–7 hard) vs Cobolli 31–21 (7–10 hard).
• Rally control: Structured pace favors Cobolli; broken rhythms/lengthy exchanges lean Brooksby.
• Stamina watch: Cobolli’s marathon trend vs Brooksby’s post-layoff endurance.
• Big-match reps: Brooksby’s USO pedigree (R16/R3) vs Cobolli’s first R2 in New York.

Suzan Lamens vs Iga Swiatek

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Lamens vs Swiatek — US Open 2R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Suzan Lamens (No. 66, age 26)

• 🇳🇱 US Open main-draw debutant riding a composed R1 win.
• 📊 2025: 27–21 overall, 11–10 on hard.
• 🔥 R1: Def. WC Glozman 6–4, 6–2 — equals her career-best Slam result (R2).
• 📉 Slam record: 0–2 in 2R this season (l. Bencic at AO, Alexandrova at Wimbledon).
• 💡 Game: Competent counterpuncher; mixes pace/tempo well but lacks elite finishing power.

Iga Swiatek (No. 2, age 24)

• 🇵🇱 Former world No. 1, 4-time Slam champion.
• 📊 2025: 50–12 (29–7 on hard).
• 🔥 Momentum: Wimbledon title followed by Cincinnati — snapped a 13-month title drought with force.
• 🏟️ US Open: Champion (2022), QF last year; has never lost before R3 here.
• 💡 R1: Routine over Arango 6–1, 6–2; dominant historically vs players outside top 50 at Slams (won 59 of 61).

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-Head: First meeting.

Form contrast: Swiatek arrives on a trophy surge; Lamens has already met her week-one goal by making R2.

Matchup dynamics: Swiatek’s heavy, high-spinning forehand and baseline weight of shot punish second serves and short balls. Lamens must vary height, pace, and direction to disrupt rhythm, but extended neutral rallies still lean Swiatek due to superior depth and footwork.

Experience edge: Lamens has never been beyond R2 at a major; Swiatek has reached the second week in 11 of her last 13 Slams.

🔮 Prediction

Lamens is steady and crafty, yet this is a steep climb against a locked-in Swiatek who rarely gives ground in early Slam rounds. Unless Swiatek’s level dips significantly, the favorite should control scoreboard pressure from the start.

Pick: Swiatek in two routine sets.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• H2H: First meeting.
• Slam pedigree: Swiatek second-week machine; Lamens yet to crack R3.
• First-strike weight: Clear edge Swiatek — punishes short replies, especially to the forehand wing.
• Disruption plan: Lamens needs variety (loopy heights, slices, drop changes) to break rhythm.
• Early-round ruthlessness: Swiatek overwhelmingly dominant vs sub-top-50 opposition at majors.

Maria Sakkari vs Anna Bondar

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Sakkari vs Bondar — US Open 2R Preview

WTA US Open Hard Court 2nd Round

🧠 Form & Context

Maria Sakkari (No. 64, age 30)

• 🇬🇷 Former world No. 3, 2021 US Open semifinalist.
• 📊 2025: 21–24 overall, 10–14 on hard.
• 📉 Back-to-back wins only twice in last 12 months (Madrid, Washington); Slam results have dipped since 2022.
• 🏟️ US Open: Snapped a two-year skid with R1 win over Tatjana Maria (6–3, 6–2).
• 💡 Context: Rebuilding confidence; vulnerability under pressure still a theme.

Anna Bondar (No. 97, age 28)

• 🇭🇺 Clay specialist making noise on hard courts.
• 📊 2025: 33–24 overall, 7–10 on hard.
• 🔥 R1 shock: Beat Elina Svitolina 6–2, 6–4 — first career top-40 win on hard; third top-20 win overall.
• 📉 Lead-in: Arrived on a 3-match losing streak (incl. loss to #203 Korneeva in Warsaw).
• 🏟️ US Open: First time in R2 here; 0–3 lifetime in Slam 2R matches.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Head-to-Head: Sakkari leads 1–0 (BJK Cup 2019, straight sets).

Momentum: Expectations were modest for both. Sakkari finally banked a New York win; Bondar delivered a career-best hard-court upset.

Style clash: Sakkari’s first-strike power and athleticism vs Bondar’s steadier, clay-born patterns adapted to hard courts. If Sakkari keeps her intensity and lands forehands early in rallies, she can front-run. Bondar’s route is to elongate exchanges, test Sakkari’s nerve, and pressure the second serve.

Key stat: Sakkari is 16–9 lifetime in Slam second rounds; Bondar is 0–3.

🔮 Prediction

Bondar’s win over Svitolina was a statement, but backing it up at this stage has been her hurdle. Sakkari is volatile yet battle-tested in Slam R2s. With cleaner starts and controlled aggression, she should have just enough to edge through — but expect resistance.

Pick: Sakkari in three sets.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• H2H: Sakkari 1–0 (BJK Cup 2019).
• Slam R2 experience: Sakkari 16–9 vs Bondar 0–3.
• Surface snapshot (2025): Sakkari 10–14 hard; Bondar 7–10 hard.
• Confidence levers: Sakkari ended her USO drought; Bondar fresh off a top-40 hard-court scalp.
• Pathways: Short, first-strike rallies favor Sakkari; extended exchanges keep Bondar in the fight.