The remaining four second-round matches from the Maia Challenger on clay, with form, serve and return numbers and a full Tale of the Tape for every match. Times are as listed by the tournament schedule.
Marco Trungelliti vs Milos Karol
🧠 Form & Context
Marco Trungelliti
- 📊 World No. 90 at 36, 5–5 in his last 10 matches.
- ✅ Came from a set down to beat Moura Monteiro in the first round.
- 🔁 The better returner: 41% of return points won and 41.9% of break points converted.
- 🏆 Strong closer – 61% of deciding sets won over his career.
- ⚠️ Converting only 38% of break points in recent matches.
Milos Karol
- 📈 Ranked No. 583 at 23, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ✅ Beat Broska 6–3 6–4 in the first round.
- 🚀 The bigger first serve: 73.3% won over his career, 74% recently.
- 🧱 Saves 62.3% of break points.
- ⚠️ Return and closing numbers are weak: 38% of return points won, 47% in deciding sets, 45% in tiebreaks.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Nearly 500 ranking places separate them, but this looks closer than that. Karol has won six of his last 10, and his serve has been one of the best in the draw.
Karol wins more than five percentage points more behind his first serve and saves more break points. Even on clay, that makes him hard to break.
Trungelliti's advantages are the return and experience. He wins 41% of return points against Karol's 38%, and his 61% career deciding-set record is far better than Karol's 47%.
Neither has been sharp on break points recently (38% vs 35%), so this may come down to a few service games – and to how each handles the tight moments.
The favourite has the return, the ranking and the clutch numbers. Karol's serve is his best route to keeping this competitive.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Trungelliti | Karol |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 90 | 583 |
| Age | 36 | 23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 0 |
| First serves in | 57.7% | 59.5% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.1% | 73.3% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| Break points saved | 59.7% | 62.3% |
| Break points converted | 41.9% | 39.0% |
| Return points won (career) | 41% | 38% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 45% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 61% | 47% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 59% | 53% |
Francesco Passaro vs Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo
🧠 Form & Context
Francesco Passaro
- 📈 Ranked No. 229 at 25, 7–3 in his last 10 matches.
- ✅ Dropped only three games against Torres in the first round.
- 🎾 The stronger serve: 68.2% on first-serve points and 52% on second-serve points.
- 🔥 Serving even better recently – 72% and 54%.
- ⚠️ Return is modest – 40% of return points won, 41.3% of break points converted.
Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo
- 📊 Ranked No. 157 at 27 – higher than Passaro – and 6–4 in his last 10.
- ✅ Beat Andrej Martin 6–4 6–4 in the first round.
- 🔁 The much better returner: 44% of return points won and 46.3% of break points converted.
- ⚠️ Break-point defence is a weakness – 56.8% saved.
- ⚠️ Only 46% of tiebreaks won over his career.
🔍 Match Breakdown
The head-to-head is 1–1: Sanchez-Izquierdo won on clay in Palmanova in 2020, and Passaro won on hard courts in Tenerife in 2023. This is their first meeting on clay since that early match.
Passaro is the market favourite despite being more than 70 places lower, mainly on the strength of his form and his serve.
The matchup is a classic serve against return. Passaro wins more points behind both serves; Sanchez-Izquierdo wins four percentage points more on return and converts break points at a much higher rate.
On a slow court, that return edge carries extra weight – especially as Passaro himself converts only 41% of his break chances.
Both players have identical best-of-three records (58%). Passaro has the form; Sanchez-Izquierdo has the ranking and the return. This looks closer than the price.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Passaro | Sanchez-Izquierdo |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 229 | 157 |
| Age | 25 | 27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 1 | 1 |
| First serves in | 65.3% | 65.1% |
| 1st-serve points won | 68.2% | 63.9% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| Break points saved | 60.5% | 56.8% |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 46.3% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 44% |
| Tiebreak win % | 51% | 46% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 54% | 55% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 58% | 58% |
Tristan Boyer vs Vilius Gaubas
🧠 Form & Context
Tristan Boyer
- 📊 Ranked No. 209 at 25, 4–6 in his last 10 but winning 58% of recent matches.
- ✅ Beat Moro Canas 6–4 6–2 in the first round.
- 🎾 Wins 67.3% behind his first serve and 51% on the second – both slightly better than Gaubas.
- 🔓 Converting 45% of break points in recent matches.
- ⚠️ Below 50% in deciding sets, both this season (43%) and over his career (47%).
Vilius Gaubas
- 📈 Ranked No. 141 at 21, 5–5 in his last 10.
- ✅ Beat Coppejans 6–3 6–4 in the first round.
- 🎾 Lands 66% of first serves and saves 59.9% of break points.
- 🏆 Strong closer – 62% of deciding sets over his career, 60% this season.
- ⚔️ Beat Boyer 7–5 6–3 on clay in Paris in May 2025.
🔍 Match Breakdown
A rematch of a straight-sets win for Gaubas on clay in Paris last year. Gaubas also has the higher ranking and is the market favourite.
The serve numbers are very close. Boyer wins slightly more behind both serves; Gaubas lands more first serves and saves break points marginally better.
On return, Gaubas has a small edge over their careers (41% vs 39% of return points won), while Boyer has been converting break points better recently.
The biggest gap is in deciding sets. Gaubas wins 62% over his career; Boyer wins 47%. If this goes to a third set, the numbers clearly favour Gaubas.
With so little between them on serve and return, the head-to-head and the closing numbers give Gaubas a slight edge. Expect a competitive match.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Boyer | Gaubas |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 209 | 141 |
| Age | 25 | 21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Head-to-head | 0 | 1 |
| First serves in | 63.4% | 66.0% |
| 1st-serve points won | 67.3% | 65.4% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 51.0% | 49.6% |
| Break points saved | 58.7% | 59.9% |
| Break points converted | 40.8% | 43.9% |
| Return points won (career) | 39% | 41% |
| Tiebreak win % | 52% | 49% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 47% | 62% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 54% | 59% |
Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer
🧠 Form & Context
Matej Dodig
- 🔥 Ranked No. 174 at 21, 8–2 in his last 10 and winning 70% of recent matches.
- ✅ Dropped only three games against Martinez Portero in the first round.
- 🚀 Big first serve: 70.8% won over his career, 75% recently.
- 🏆 Strong in tight moments – 60% of deciding sets and 56% of tiebreaks won.
- ⚔️ Leads the head-to-head 2–0, including a 6–3 6–1 win in Braga only five days ago.
Lukas Neumayer
- 📊 Ranked No. 180 at 24, 6–4 in his last 10.
- ✅ Came through a three-setter against Moller in the first round.
- 🔁 The better returner: 42% of return points won and 45.4% of break points converted.
- 🎾 Stronger on the second serve (52.1%) and lands more first serves (63.6%).
- ⚠️ Below 50% in deciding sets over his career (49%).
🔍 Match Breakdown
The second meeting in less than a week. Dodig beat Neumayer comfortably in Braga on Saturday, and he also won their first meeting in Trieste last year.
Dodig's first serve is the key difference. He wins nearly six percentage points more behind it, and recently that gap has been even wider (75% vs 67%).
Neumayer has the better return and second serve. He wins 42% of return points against Dodig's 40%, and converts break points at a higher rate.
The form and closing numbers favour Dodig: 70% of recent matches won, 60% of deciding sets, against 59% and 49% for Neumayer.
Two meetings, two wins for Dodig, and a stronger serve. Neumayer will need a much better return performance than in Braga to change the pattern.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Dodig | Neumayer |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | 174 | 180 |
| Age | 21 | 24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Head-to-head | 2 | 0 |
| First serves in | 59.7% | 63.6% |
| 1st-serve points won | 70.8% | 65.0% |
| 2nd-serve points won | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| Break points saved | 60.6% | 58.8% |
| Break points converted | 40.7% | 45.4% |
| Return points won (career) | 40% | 42% |
| Tiebreak win % | 56% | 54% |
| Deciding-set win % (career) | 60% | 49% |
| Best-of-3 win % | 63% | 58% |
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