Get full previews and in-play cues on Patreon — early angles + closing-line tracking.
Moutet vs Vukic — Metz R1 Preview
🧠 Form & Context
🇫🇷 Corentin Moutet (#31, lefty)
- 2025: 41–28 overall | 7–3 indoors 📈
- Hot indoor stretch: Vienna R16 d. Medvedev, QF loss to Musetti; Paris R1 d. Opelka, fell to Bublik.
- Runner-up in Almaty (L to Medvedev). Metz SF in 2024 — strong home comfort.
🇦🇺 Aleksandar Vukic (#87, righty)
- 2025: 28–37 overall | 4–4 indoors.
- Paris: qual’d and beat Atmane, then fell to Fritz; Tokyo QF (d. Altmaier); AO R3 (d. Korda, L to Draper in 5).
- Profile: big-serve / first-strike that plays up under a roof.
- H2H: 0–1 (Shanghai 2024 — Vukic d. Moutet 2–6, 6–3, 6–4).
🔍 Match Breakdown
Patterns & pace: Moutet’s lefty variety — short angles, drop shots, and tempo shifts — can disrupt Vukic’s rhythm and pull him off his strike zone.
Serve dynamics: Vukic needs ~65%+ first serves to protect his forehand-led patterns; extended rallies and BH exchanges tilt toward Moutet.
Return games: Moutet’s crafty return (chips/blocks) should start neutral points effectively against Vukic’s flatter first ball.
Intangibles: Indoors rewards first-strike tennis, but Metz crowd and Moutet’s recent elite scalps suggest composure in tight scorelines.
- Upset path Vukic: keep points short, stack scoreboard pressure, hunt tiebreaks; avoid BH-to-BH grind.
🔮 Prediction
Moutet’s current indoor form and home setting give him the higher floor in baseline exchanges, with more ways to win ugly if rallies lengthen. Vukic’s serve can steal segments — a breaker is live — but over the balance of two sets, Moutet’s variety and return craft should create more chances.
Pick: Moutet in two tight sets (tiebreak possible).
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Corentin Moutet | Aleksandar Vukic |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Record | 41–28 (7–3 indoors) | 28–37 (4–4 indoors) |
| Recent Indoors | Vienna R16 d. Medvedev; Paris R1 d. Opelka | Tokyo QF (d. Altmaier); Paris qual d. Atmane |
| First-Strike vs Variety | Lefty angles, drops, change-ups | Big serve + FH first ball |
| H2H | Trails 0–1 (Shanghai ’24) | Leads 1–0 (Shanghai ’24) |
| Crowd/Context | Home boost; 2024 Metz SF | Dangerous in TBs if serve pops |
| Lean | Edges two close sets | Live if S1/TB goes his way |
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