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WTA Beijing — Iga Świątek vs Yuan Yue (R32, Hard)
WTA Beijing
Hard Court
Round of 32
🇨🇳 27 Sep 2025
🧠 Form & Context
Iga Świątek (🇵🇱 #2)
- 🏆 Seoul champion last week (d. Alexandrova 1–6, 7–6, 7–5 after cruising past Cîrstea, Krejčíková, Joint).
- 🏯 Beijing comfort: champion on debut in 2023.
- 🔥 2025 hard-court form: 37–8 with marquee titles including Cincinnati (plus Wimbledon crown this season).
Yuan Yue (🇨🇳 #110)
- ✅ Skid snapped: d. Putintseva 6–3, 6–3 (saved 6/6 BPs, converted 3/3) in R1.
- 📉 Patchy year with many early exits; 2025 hard 9–14.
- 🏠 Home swing regular: reached R2 here in 2023 & 2024.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Pattern control: Świątek’s depth/tempo and FH inside-in lanes should rush Yuan’s contact and draw short replies.
Return squeeze: Świątek’s ROS vs Yuan’s second serve is the biggest leverage point; repeating a perfect BP save rate is unlikely under this pressure.
Variance window: A brief dip from Świątek can open a tight set, but sustaining resistance across two is a tall ask given rally weight and consistency gaps.
🔮 Prediction
Pick: Świątek in straight sets (one competitive set likely: ~6–3, 6–4). Floor, patterns, and ROS pressure favor Iga over time.
📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)
- Form trend: Świątek elite/locked-in post-Seoul; Yuan buoyed by R1 but overall inconsistent.
- Surface fit: Slower Beijing hard magnifies Iga’s rally tolerance and depth control.
- Serve/return axis: Big edge Świątek on second-serve exchanges and baseline length.
- Tiebreak meter: Possible if Yuan front-runs early; lean Świątek.
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