Ajla Tomljanović vs Jessica Pegula

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WTA Beijing — Ajla Tomljanović vs Jessica Pegula (R32, Hard)

WTA Beijing Hard Court Round of 32 🇨🇳 27 Sep 2025

🧠 Form & Context

Ajla Tomljanović (🇦🇺 #94)

• ✅ Beijing R1: d. Starodubtseva 7–6, 6–2 after a 0–4 start.
• 🧱 2025 hard: 9–9; last multi-round hard run in Austin.
• 📉 Since Rabat SF (May), hasn’t gone beyond R2; recent retirement in São Paulo.

Jessica Pegula (🇺🇸 #7)

• 🏆 Season haul: Austin, Charleston, Bad Homburg champions; US Open SF.
• 😬 BJK Shenzhen: 1–2 (L vs Rybakina, Paolini), team runner-up.
• 🧭 China/Beijing history modest (R16 best), but 2025 hard 27–10 with multiple deep runs.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve/return axis: Pegula’s compact ROS should bite into Ajla’s second serve and shorten rallies on big points. Tomljanović needs a 1st-serve% above her season norm to keep patterns neutral.

Patterns: Pegula works BH cross to open space, then redirects DTL. Ajla must hold BH line and use the inside-out FH to keep Pegula off the middle corridor.

Physicality & conversion: Pegula’s reliability in 4–8 ball exchanges and superior BP conversion at 1000+/Slam level have told all year. Ajla’s tight-set record gives her a set-push chance but not sustained control.

H2H texture: Pegula has won the last three (United Cup ’24; Austin SF ’25; Charleston R16 ’25); her +1 tempo has consistently troubled Ajla.

🔮 Prediction

Pick: Pegula in straight sets (one tight — ~7–5 or TB). Top-tier consistency and return pressure should carry the day.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Form trend: Pegula steady top-10; Tomljanović stop–start with fitness overhang.
• Surface fit: Slower Beijing hard rewards Pegula’s ROS and depth control.
• Rally length: Short/clean serves help Ajla; neutral/extended exchanges lean Pegula.
• Tiebreak meter: Live early if Ajla serves hot; lean Pegula overall.