Lajović vs Van Assche

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Lajović vs Van Assche — US Open Preview

ATP US Open Hard Court Men’s Singles

🧠 Form & Context

Dušan Lajović

• 🧱 Clay-court veteran: most of his 2025 wins sit on clay (23–14), while hard has been rough (4–9).
• 📉 Slam dip: six straight R1 exits at majors; last USO win back in 2019.
• ⚠️ Recent setback: retired in Cancún last week — fitness a live question.
• 📊 Experience edge: 35 years old, ex-Top 25, 600+ career matches in the bank.

Luca Van Assche

• 🌱 Young talent: 21 years old; career-high #63 (2023), now #207 after a dip.
• 🎾 Mixed 2025: 23–19 overall, but only 1–2 on hard this season.
• 🔥 Challenger rhythm: finalist in Zagreb; SFs in Monza, Sassuolo, Lyon.
• 🇫🇷 USO notes: main draw in 2023 (R1); chasing a second Slam MD berth.
• 📈 Upside: steadier fitness than Lajović and a higher long-run ceiling.

🔍 Match Breakdown

H2H: Lajović leads 1–0 (Parma Challenger 2022, straight sets).

Form split: Lajović rolling on clay (incl. Cordenons titles) but fragile after that retirement; Van Assche’s hard numbers are light, yet he’s been match-sharp at Challenger level.

Surface lens: Lajović’s heavy-topspin patterns shine on clay; on hard, his defense can be stretched. Van Assche’s flatter baselining maps better here if he holds his depth.

Tactics: Expect Lajović to probe with forehand shape and mix pace; Van Assche should take time early, step inside the baseline, and pressure the Lajović second serve.

🔮 Prediction

Market has it near a coin flip (≈1.86–1.90). If Lajović is healthy, experience plus variety can carry him. But with fitness doubts and a poor hard-court ledger, the door is open for the younger Frenchman to nick it with cleaner hitting on this surface.

Pick: Lean Van Assche in 3 tight sets. Lajović live if fully fit, but percentage play tilts to the fresher legs and surface fit.