Alex Michelsen vs Roberto Bautista Agut

ATP Mallorca – Quarterfinal Preview

Alex Michelsen vs Roberto Bautista Agut

Date: 26 June 2025 | Time: 18:30 CEST
Surface: Grass | Location: Mallorca

🧠 Form & Context

Alex Michelsen
🚀 Next-gen jumper: World No. 33 at just 20; back-to-back Mallorca quarterfinalist (2024 & 2025).
🌱 Grass groove: 4–2 this month; Halle wins over Cerúndolo and Tsitsipas.
🎯 First-strike blueprint: Big serve + forehand combo, averaging 10 aces per match on grass.
🔋 Fresh legs: Just 17 sets played across three grass events—well-rested for a shoot-out.

Roberto Bautista Agut
🧭 Ever-green grinder: 12 ATP titles, 64–34 lifetime on grass, Mallorca finalist in 2022.
🔥 June surge: 5–2 on grass this swing, including a Queen’s Club semifinal (d. Rune, l. Alcaraz).
🎯 Low-skid mastery: Flat, early strokes that pin opponents into half-volleys.
⚠️ Workload flag: Nine matches in 12 days—fatigue could be a factor in long rallies.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Michelsen will hunt short points—big serve up the T, forehand follow-up, and early net ventures. The goal: keep rallies under four shots and avoid drawn-out exchanges.

Bautista Agut counters with surgical returns and low-slicing backhands that deny Michelsen ideal contact height. If the young American’s first-serve percentage slips, RBA’s compact game will stretch rallies and probe the forehand wing under pressure.

Key factors:
• Serve efficiency: Michelsen needs to maintain ~65% first serves to stay in control.
• Rally length: Points under 4 shots favor Michelsen; longer than 6 swings it to RBA.
• Experience: Bautista Agut has 26 ATP QF wins; Michelsen is 2–5 at this stage.

🔮 Prediction

Prediction: Bautista Agut in 2 tight sets – 7–6, 6–4. Expect a clash of tempo, but RBA’s depth, control, and grass IQ should edge it against the raw explosiveness of the American.