ATP Geneva – Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston

ATP Geneva – Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston

🧠 Form & Context

Matteo Arnaldi
🔥 Steadily building a solid 2025 campaign with a 12–11 record, including wins over Coric, Dzumhur, Tiafoe, and an eye-catching victory over Novak Djokovic in Madrid.
🌱 A respectable clay player, holding a 4–4 record on the surface this year and a strong career mark of 134–72. Has delivered consistent ATP-level performances.
🇨🇭 Making his debut in Geneva as he looks to sharpen form before Roland-Garros.
📉 Comes off a straight-sets loss to Bautista Agut in Rome but had a notable Madrid run beforehand.

Hugo Gaston
🎢 A volatile 2025 season so far—he’s 12–17 overall and just 4–10 on clay, which is supposed to be his strongest surface.
🧪 Unpredictable: Beat players like Jarry and Nagal, but has suffered puzzling losses to Gojo, Darderi, and Atmane. Form fluctuates round to round.
💥 Still thrives on flair: Known for his drop shots, spins, and tricky angles—he uses the full court and thrives when disrupting rhythm.
🚨 Hasn’t made it past the 2nd round in any ATP main draw since Montpellier in February.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a clash between structure and chaos. Arnaldi brings a balanced, composed baseline game—solid footwork, clean technique, and enough power to dictate points. His recent wins show he’s increasingly confident in top-tier matchups.

Gaston, on the other hand, plays unpredictable tennis. If he can lure Arnaldi out of rhythm with his signature variety—especially in the altitude conditions of Geneva—he has an outside shot. But it requires precision and sustained execution, which has eluded him this season.

If Arnaldi stays patient and doesn’t get baited into reckless forays to net or rhythm-breaking exchanges, he should manage this well.

🔮 Prediction

Gaston’s flair makes him dangerous in flashes, but Arnaldi’s discipline and consistency should prevail. Expect a few highlight shots from the Frenchman—but Arnaldi is better equipped for a complete match.
🧩 Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi in 2 tight sets — controlled and professional performance.