🎾 ATP French Open R1: Reilly Opelka vs Rinky Hijikata

🎾 ATP French Open R1: Reilly Opelka vs Rinky Hijikata – Match Preview

🧠 Form & Context

🇺🇸 Reilly Opelka
📉 Limited clay success: Just one main-draw win on clay in the past three years—ironically, against Hijikata in Madrid a few weeks ago.
🔙 Comeback effort: Returning from long-term injury issues, Opelka has played sparingly and is still regaining match fitness.
⏳ Slam struggles: Despite his big-serving game, his Slam record is underwhelming—especially in Paris, where he holds a 1–4 lifetime record.
🎯 Finding rhythm: Encouraging signs in recent performances, but still far from his top-20 form of 2021.
🇦🇺 Rinky Hijikata
📉 Slipping form: Hasn’t won a main-draw ATP match since March (Miami) and holds only five tour-level wins in 2025.
🛠️ Challenger recalibration: Reached SF in Bordeaux to regain confidence, but success hasn’t yet translated to ATP-level wins.
📉 Danger of dropping: Approaching the edge of the top 100 amid his worst form stretch since his breakthrough year in 2022.
🎾 Struggles vs. power: Often finds it difficult to absorb and redirect pace against big hitters like Opelka.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is a rematch of their Madrid Masters R1 meeting earlier this month, which Opelka won in straight sets. However, the conditions in Paris—much slower and more physically demanding—could level the playing field. Opelka’s serve remains one of the most potent weapons on tour, even on clay. However, extended rallies and physicality have never been his strength—especially given his recent injury layoff. Hijikata will look to exploit Opelka’s limited movement and push points into longer exchanges. Still, Hijikata hasn’t shown enough consistency or baseline dominance to truly capitalize. If Opelka lands his first serve at a high percentage and keeps rallies short, he has the edge.

🔮 Prediction

Neither player arrives in top form, but Opelka’s firepower and recent head-to-head win tilt this slightly in his favor. If he avoids extended physical rallies, he should serve his way into R2. 🧩 Prediction: Opelka in 4 sets. Hijikata will get looks on return but lacks the weapons to sustain pressure over best-of-five.