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ATP Vienna — Damir Dzumhur vs Corentin Moutet
🧠 Form & Context
Damir Dzumhur
- 📈 2025: 36–32 overall | 9–11 on hard | 3–1 indoors.
- 🏟️ Vienna: five appearances; 2–2 in R1 here, last MD win back in 2017.
- 🔧 Current swing: snapped a four-match skid; Brussels R16 pushed Auger-Aliassime to two TBs; qualified here (d. Vukic in a TB, d. Quinn).
- 🧬 Profile: counterpunching, redirect-pace specialist who thrives when rallies keep a steady rhythm.
Corentin Moutet
- 📈 2025: 38–26 overall | 15–12 on hard | 4–1 indoors.
- 🚀 Peak & momentum: career-high #36; Almaty finalist last week, took Medvedev to three.
- 🛬 Vienna: missed MD via qual losses in 2022 & 2024; direct entry now. Outstanding 16–6 in tour-level opening rounds this year.
- 🎭 Profile: lefty shape, touch and disguise; mixes height/tempo and takes early on the rise.
🔍 Match Breakdown
Patterns & pace: Moutet’s variety is designed to scramble timing—short angles, lofted height, sudden pace-ups—pulling exchanges off-script. That’s awkward for Dzumhur, who prefers borrowing pace and countering into space. If Moutet keeps depth through the backhand line and changes look early, he dictates cadence.
Return games matter: With neither man banking heaps of free points, clusters of break chances loom. Dzumhur’s qualifying run means he’s match-hardened under the lights; Moutet brings the higher confidence ceiling from Almaty and a reliable first-ball neutralizer.
H2H context: 1–1 (both on clay). Dzumhur took Santiago 2025 (6–2, 3–6, 6–2); Moutet won Rome 2024 qualies (6–1, 6–3). First indoor meeting subtly favors the lefty’s control-oriented patterns.
🔮 Prediction
The recent quality meter tilts Moutet: sharper decision-making, fresh confidence, and a toolkit that unsettles rhythm players indoors. Dzumhur’s form uptick and Vienna reps keep this competitive—especially in longer, grindy patches—but over the full distance the Frenchman’s variety should tell.
Pick: Corentin Moutet in three sets.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Damir Dzumhur | Corentin Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Form | 36–32 overall | 9–11 hard | 3–1 indoors | 38–26 overall | 15–12 hard | 4–1 indoors |
| Vienna Notes | Five apps; last MD win in 2017; qualified this week | Direct MD entry after prior qual losses (’22, ’24) |
| Recent Swing | Brussels R16 (two TBs vs FAA); wins over Vukic (TB) & Quinn in qualies | Almaty finalist; pushed Medvedev to three |
| H2H | Leads 1 on Santiago 2025 (clay) | Leads 1 on Rome 2024 qualies (clay) |
| Stylistic Edge Indoors | Counterpunch & redirection when tempo is steady | Lefty variety, disrupts rhythm & controls cadence |
| Leaning | Live if rallies stay linear | Slight edge overall |
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