Collignon vs Auger-Aliassime

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Collignon vs Auger-Aliassime — Brussels SF Preview

ATP Brussels Indoor Hard Semifinal

🧠 Form & Context

🇧🇪 Raphael Collignon (#90, R) — indoor specialist vibes at home.

• 📈 2025: 42–20 overall | 19–5 indoors 🔥
• 🏟️ Brussels: d. Bergs 6–4, 7–6(5); d. Comesaña 7–5, 3–6, 7–6(10); d. Davidovich Fokina 7–6(5), 6–1.
• 🧱 Confidence since September: Davis Cup wins over De Minaur & Vukic; finals/SF runs on the French indoor swing.
• 🎟️ First ATP season really sticking at tour level; wildcard momentum + home crowd.

🇨🇦 Felix Auger-Aliassime (#13, R) — proven top-tier indoors.

• 📈 2025: 41–22 overall | 8–2 indoors ✅ (titles in Adelaide & Montpellier, runner-up Dubai, US Open SF).
• 🏟️ Brussels: d. Džumhur 7–6(3), 4–6, 7–6(5); d. Spizzirri 6–2, 7–6(6).
• ✈️ Arrives off a solid Asia swing (Shanghai QF) with heavy match load; tiebreak sharpness showing this week.

🔍 Match Breakdown

Serve patterns: FAA brings the bigger first-serve pop and first-strike forehand — expect him to shorten points and lean on plus-one patterns. Collignon counters with clean two-handed backhand timing and sturdy backboard stretches, especially indoors when he can set his feet early.

Rally length & depth: The longer this drifts into neutral-to-defensive exchanges, the more Collignon drags the favorite into grind zones. FAA’s recent tiebreaks suggest high-leverage composure, but prolonged rallies plus the Belgian crowd can tilt mini-runs toward the underdog.

Return games: Collignon needs early depth to the FAA backhand to prevent forehand takeover; chip-block redirects up the line could pay off. FAA should pressure second serves and force Collignon’s forehand from awkward heights.

Intangibles: Home energy for Collignon, but big-match reps and closing experience tilt toward FAA. Indoors usually rewards the heavier first strike — advantage FAA in the margins.

🔮 Prediction

Auger-Aliassime in 3 sets. Expect at least one tiebreak and long pockets of baseline chess. Collignon’s form + crowd make this sticky, but FAA’s serve/plus-one execution and closing history give him the edge down the stretch.

📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)

• Serve weight: Edge FAA — more free points & plus-one control.
• Baseline tolerance: Edge Collignon — comfortable extending rallies indoors.
• Tiebreak meter: Slight edge FAA based on recent breakers.
• Home factor: Collignon gets the crowd lift.
• Closing reps: FAA’s big-stage experience is a separator.
• Surface fit: Indoor first-strike tennis → small lean FAA.