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Lehecka vs Alcaraz — US Open QF Preview
ATP US Open
Hard Court
Quarterfinal
🧠 Form & Context
Jiri Lehecka (🇨🇿, #21)
- ✅ NYC run: d. Ćorić 4, -4, 7–6, 6–1 → d. Etcheverry 4 → d. Collignon 3 → d. Mannarino 4 (56 winners).
- 📈 2025 hard: 20–8; title in Brisbane (exhibition style) and steady summer with R16s in Toronto/Cincy.
- 💣 Identity: first-strike serve + forehand, quick patterns, likes taking time away.
- 🚧 Step up: first top-10 test of this USO; 0–5 in last five vs top-10 at Slams (no sets won).
Carlos Alcaraz (🇪🇸, #2)
- 🔥 NYC in cruise: four straight-set wins (Opelka, Bellucci, Darderi, Rinderknech) — first Slam QF run of career without dropping a set.
- 🏆 Formline: Cincinnati champion; 2025 overall 58–6 with finals in seven straight events since Miami.
- 🧰 Toolset: elite ROS, elastic defense → offense, forehand heavy, backhand redirect, all-court variety.
- 🧗 Slam ceiling: defending deep-run aura in New York (’22 champ; ’23 SF).
🔍 Match Breakdown
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🔮 Prediction
Lehecka’s first-strike pace can punch holes early, but sustaining scoreboard pressure over best-of-five against Alcaraz’s return and elastic defense is a different climb. If Lehecka red-lines the serve, a tie-break set is live; otherwise Alcaraz’s depth and improvisation tilt the long exchanges.
Pick: Alcaraz in three tight sets (4 if Lehecka steals a TB).
📊 Tale of the Tape (Qualitative)
- Form trend: Alcaraz blazing, Lehecka confident after clean hitting vs Mannarino.
- First-strike vs. absorption: Edge Alcaraz in elongating rallies; Lehecka must keep points short.
- Return edge: Clear Alcaraz advantage on 2nd-serve looks.
- Net/variety: Alcaraz’s all-court gears > Lehecka’s more linear aggression.
- Mileage factor: Alcaraz fresher (no sets dropped).
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