Naomi Osaka vs Anastasija Sevastova

🇨🇦 Montreal Masters – R16 Preview
Naomi Osaka vs Anastasija Sevastova

🧠 Form & Context

Naomi Osaka
🎾 Digging deep: Survived three match points to beat Samsonova, then cruised past Ostapenko despite a shaky second-serve stat (39% won).
🚀 Best Canadian run since 2019: Back in the R16 for the first time since her quarterfinal run six years ago, this time with full match wins.
🔁 Comeback season building: Reached R4 in Miami and Rome, won a 125K title in Saint-Malo, and made the Auckland final (retired).
⛔ Quarterfinal drought: Hasn’t made a WTA quarterfinal since Auckland in January—she’s knocking, but not quite breaking through.

Anastasija Sevastova
🦿 Injury redemption: Stunning comeback from ACL injury and maternity leave—beat Jessica Pegula for her first top-10 win since 2020.
📈 Three battles, three wins: Has won all matches in three sets—Tomljanovic, Linette, Pegula—showing grit and sharpness.
🧠 Veteran instincts: Once a world No. 11, she knows how to disrupt rhythm with slices and changes of pace.
🎯 Underdog danger: Entered Montreal on a four-match losing streak and ranked 386; this is her first big-stage QF bid since Rabat.

🔍 Match Breakdown

This is not a straightforward match for Osaka. While she’s the favorite on paper, Sevastova’s variety-heavy game has troubled her in the past—even when Osaka was in peak form. Their H2H is 3–2, but most matches were tight. Sevastova will try to lure Osaka into errors with her trademark drop shots, spins, and changes of direction. But Osaka’s raw power off both wings, especially on quick courts, could end points before Sevastova gets a chance to manipulate them. Osaka’s serve will be key—if she can maintain a high first-serve percentage and avoid dips on her second serve, she should control the tempo. But Sevastova’s current form makes her a live threat, particularly if Osaka has a passive or erratic patch.

🔮 Prediction

This is a classic “danger match” for a higher seed facing a resurging veteran. If Osaka keeps her focus and hits through the middle, she can avoid the traps Sevastova sets. But if she’s drawn into extended rallies or lets frustration creep in, this could go the distance.

Prediction: Osaka in two tight sets or three. Expect a push from Sevastova, but Osaka’s superior weapons should carry her—barely.