Medvedev vs Popyrin

🧠 Form & Context

Daniil Medvedev

• 😞 Struggling veteran: 2025 form worse than 2022, with early losses in Washington and Montreal.
• 🏆 North American pedigree: Former World No. 1, US Open champion, and Toronto 2021 winner.
• 🧠 Confidence cracks: Emotional volatility and tactical indecision have cost him; dropped serve eight times vs. Svrcina.
• 🎾 Hard-court stats: 12–6 in 2025, but lacking the ruthless efficiency of past years.

Alexei Popyrin

• 👑 Defending champion: Shocked the tour in Montreal ’24 with six upsets, including five top-20s.
• 📉 Off-color season: Only 4–8 on hard courts in 2025, scraping past a teen qualifier in R2.
• 🔄 Pressure cooker: Carrying the weight of his title defense, rarely stringing together wins (just three back-to-back wins all year).
• ⚡ Upset threat: Has beaten Medvedev on hard before (Paris ’24), and thrives when underestimated.

🔍 Match Breakdown

• 🎾 Serve & Return: Medvedev must boost his first-serve% to avoid Popyrin’s break bursts; Popyrin will hunt every second serve.
• 🏃 Movement vs. Power: Medvedev’s slippery defense and retrieval against Popyrin’s raw explosiveness.
• 🤯 Mental edge: Medvedev’s on-court angst vs. Popyrin’s fearless underdog mindset when loose.
• 📈 Form momentum: Popyrin arrives with defending-champion confidence; Medvedev needs a turnaround but has shown nothing yet.

🔮 Prediction

Expect a tense battle with momentum swings. Medvedev’s class on hard courts can prevail if he settles his mind early, but Popyrin’s hunger and home-region comfort make him dangerous.

🏅 Pick: Medvedev in 3 sets — but Over 2.5 sets has strong value.